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Analyst: New GTA next year?

Michael Pachter predicts new GTA game could release in 2010

Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has estimated that the first batch of 360 exclusive Grand Theft Auto IV DLC, The Lost and Damned, will have been downloaded two million times by the end of the year.

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Microsoft's already said that The Lost and Damned broke Xbox Live's first day revenue record, although it hasn't confirmed how many times the content has been downloaded to date.

"Take-Two released the first instalment of DLC for GTA in mid-February, and we estimate that the game has been downloaded over one million times to date. By year-end, we think that this figure will likely double", said Pachter.

"The next instalment of DLC is due later this year, perhaps coming after the close of the company's October 31 fiscal year," he added.

Pachter also expects a new full GTA title to release next year, and predicted it would comfortably outsell GTA IV.

"When the next version of GTA comes out in late 2010 (not yet announced, but a reasonable expectation), there should be an installed base of approximately 60 million consoles in the addressable market. We don't think it is reasonable to estimate that sales of GTA will double the prior version, but we think that a 25-30% penetration is reasonable, suggesting 15-18 million units sold."

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