EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich has said Microsoft and Sony's motion controllers, Kinect and Move respectively, are "critical" to the success of the current console generation's elongated cycle.
"Most console cycles last no more than five years, but with us approaching the fifth year of the current and with no end in sight, the success of the Move and Kinect are critical to the success of this elongated cycle," Divnich told Critical Gamer.
"Unlike the previous generations, the goal this time is to increase the value of the consoles over time. We've seen this occur already through the implementation of larger hard-drives, Wi-Fi, and various online services," he explained.
According to Divnich, due to the underpowered nature of Wii, Nintendo would seem likely to make the first next-gen jump. "Due to its target market and its technology, Nintendo will always operate on a shorter console cycle. Which isn't a bad strategy," he said.
Microsoft has stated its confidence that Kinect will have a five-year run on 360. Now they're on shop shelves, what do you reckon?
Comments
18 comments so far...
lukesoad on 8 Dec '10 said:
I would say I'm a bit of an MS fanboy but if they continue with this Xbox hardware for another 5 years, I'll be looking elsewhere to satisfy my gaming needs. I think if they try to use the same hardware for another 5 years, PS will struggle but MS will find it even harder.Personally, I think it would be a move that would switch me to PC gaming until something more powerful grabs my attention. By this point, I imagine I would be a lot less likely to by loyal to MS.
MutilateTheDead on 8 Dec '10 said:
It wont last five years, no real interest in this, all last week we sold 2 at the shop i work in!
TOKEN on 8 Dec '10 said:
This doesnt mean another 5 years for xbox 3,as it will take 2 to 3 years sale momentium.
And if rumour be true from girlgamersuck.com as they recieved an email from an employer of nintendo claiming bluray is definate and a more realistc 2011 release than last year rumourer.
How many people will trade 360s for it.
Padua on 8 Dec '10 said:
I think Nintendo is in the best position to capitalise on this situation ... if it remains to be true. 5 years is a long time in the electronic world
Buying a new console isn't like buying a new car.
I wouldn't think twice about spending £400 every 5 years for real innovation and cutting edge features. If you told someone you were expected to keep the same mobile phone for 5 years let alone 10, they would think you were CRAZY!
Bluray/1080p are the features that will see Sony reach the 10 year finish line comfortably.
Microsoft are crazy to talk about a 10 year cycle even with Kinect. They are better off scaring Sony again by releasing the next XBox a year or two before Sony
littleprecious on 8 Dec '10 said:
I've had my PS3 since launch. To me it really doesn't feel like it's been 4 years. I hardly feel they have even started to tap into its full potential. I don't feel the need for a new generation of consoles for at least another few years. The current standard of graphics on most games is more than enough to satisfy my needs, and the gameplay for most will not be bettered by consoles with more grunt behind them.
I would much rather MS and Sony spend more time getting some top quality in house games out that really push our machines to the limit (like God of War 2 on PS2). Than have to sit through a year of sub par launch games.
boskersrevenge on 8 Dec '10 said:
Nintendo will be announcing something next year - MS rumours will being to circulate in the 2nd quarter and Sony will announce a "bridge" to give the PS3 a push to compete.
How do I know this? I made it all up! I'm an analyst now.
martb on 8 Dec '10 said:
10 Yrs is far too long Ive owned both Ps3 and 360 since launch and I already feel this gen is becoming a bit stagnant for me I look forwrd to the leap in Graphics etc each cycle brings. I only sold my PS3 last week due to it getting very little to no use at all. 1-2 exclusive games worth playing per year wasnt worth keeping it and its too noisy as a BR player I will Definately miss Uncharted 3 though if its as good as 2.
For now ill plod on with the 360 but If Nintendo Bring out a new Home Console anytime soon and its more powerful than the current HD consoles I will be all over it especially if its backwards compatible. I never felt the urge to buy a Wii but there are a few games I would like to play from it and I wonder how many other people would feel the same, It could really take Sony/MS by surprise.
drpunk on 8 Dec '10 said:
I'm still kinda waiting for the games to go next-gen. All that seemed to happen last gen is games got better and better graphics. Then these super powered next-gen consoles came out that offered greater potential for games. And all we got was better graphics.
Black Mantis on 8 Dec '10 said:
When Microsoft/Sony talk about 10 year life cycles for their current consoles, they just mean how long they'll support it by producing new titles for them. They'll both release new consoles prior to the 360's/PS3's 10th birthday.
I agree with Padua, Nintendo are probably in the best position at the moment in terms of releasing a new console. My only concern would be whether they can make it powerful enough to wow those of us who own the 360/PS3. I'm sure it will be quite innovative though.
CrispyLog on 8 Dec '10 said:
You're not just an analyst, you're my favourite analyst
aj101 on 8 Dec '10 said:
It's kind of ironic because in a sense Nintendo did with the Gamecube/Wii what Sony and Microsoft are trying to do with the PS3/Move and Xbox360/Kinect now. It must be getting close to the 10 year mark for what is essentially a modded Cube, and in many ways I think they proved (to be fair it was probably Sony who did this with the PS2 in terms of length on the market) that a longer console cycle is viable as long as innovation appears in some form.
I agree with Padua and Black Mantis though - Nintendo can reasonably delay the length of time before they bring out their next console, but when they do or when they're ready to, it'll still be a few years before the competition is ready to follow suit (given that you believe the rhetoric about 10 year life spans).
It's now that Nintendo should start thinking about graphics again, it should be fairly easy to bring out a higher spec console that does all that the PS3 and X360 promised but failed to deliver this generation, and they've certainly got the money to do so after their most successful console in a decade and a half.
Should be quite interesting when the time comes. A Nintendo console doing proper 1080P and generally wiping up in the graphics department. With their games along for the ride, hopefully better and more third party support, these are not bad nor too unrealistic prospects.
combatevolved on 8 Dec '10 said:
Gears of War 3 will max out the 360, its not gonna get any prettier after that. Im happy with my 360 another 2 years (3 years max) as long as:
1) At least three excellent games come out for kinect within the next year and
2) Some exclusive hardocore AAA non kinect games are anounced for the near future ie Halo HD, Alan Wake 2, Spinter Cell 6, Forza 4, Crackdown 3, Left 4 Dead 3, Mass Effect 3, an Epic designed exclusive FPS, something original from Lionhead......
I may be a dreamer i just hope im not the only one
ricflair on 8 Dec '10 said:
Considering you work in Claire's Accessories, I'd say those numbers are pretty impressive!
feeg86 on 8 Dec '10 said:
4 years already? I've had my PS3 for 2 and had an xbox a year before that.
Doesn't feel anywhere near dying off. Hardrives, internet gaming and bluray have been a godsend for the longevity imo. I'd like to think that both platforms will keep releasing stong games for another 4 years yet.
rip_it_up on 8 Dec '10 said:
If nintendo did release a new console surpassing the power of the ps3, do you guys think we would get loads of sub par ports of games which appeared on the ps3-360 from 3rd partys and only nintendo really pushing the power of the new console.
Paradaz - UK on 8 Dec '10 said:
roxcolin on 9 Dec '10 said:
i agree with some of the comments above, 10 years is to long, i own a ps3, but it isnt even in its stride yet, but i do feel nintendo are in the best position, its 5 years old now,and nintendo are already talking of the next wii, which has caught my attention, ive never played a wii, but(im being honest here) ive been tempted to ditch the ps3 and get a wii, i feel alot of games on the ps3 and the xbox 360 are very empty, lacking spirit and soul, not all, as ive owned a xbox too, and there is some cracking games on the wii now,so im tempted!! and plus,( and this i my big bug bear!!!) im flipping peed of with pointless trophies and achievements that are bolted to games, i dont do much online play, so loads of trophies dont get done, i think im craving the days of playing a game,enjoying it and putting it down,
Cryotek on 9 Dec '10 said:
Cool, I can take another five years of making fun of console gamers as PC games get even farther ahead...