Posted on Monday 11-Jul-2011 5:07 PM

CoD Elite could cause players to 'defect' to Battlefield - Analyst

Pachter expects EA's game to clear 6.5 million

Activision's Call of Duty subscription service, CoD Elite, could cause a "small number" of loyal players to defect to EA's Battlefield 3.

That's according to the latest research note by Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter, who expects Activision's shares to come under pressure when EA's game is launched - especially if it scores well with press.

"We expect EA's game to perform exceedingly well, eclipsing the 6.5 million units sold by the last iteration, and think that Activision's introduction of Call of Duty Elite (its premium subscription service) could cause a small number of loyal Call of Duty players to defect to EA's game," Pachter wrote.

Call of Duty Elite Screenshot
"While we think that Activision's 2011 Call of Duty sales have the potential to eclipse last year's mind-boggling 20 million units, due primarily to the network effect created by the game's remarkable 17 million weekly active unique online players, we think that the company's shares may come under pressure when EA's game is launched, particularly if Battlefield 3 receives a 90+ Metacritic score."

Set to launch alongside Modern Warfare 3 on November 8, Call of Duty Elite will offer a mixture of free and paid subscription features, but the publisher has stressed in a massive FAQ that that it's "TAKING NOTHING AWAY" from CoD players as multiplayer in its existing form will remain free.

So far over two million people have signed up for the Call of Duty Elite beta test.

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Comments

31 comments so far...

  1. chamony on 11 Jul '11 said:

    i hate that patcher t1t

    but i'll prob buy cod just like everyone else, because all our mates will get it

    but you can screw any subscription services

    battlefield looks pretty good too tho

    ooh the decisions :D

  2. makinmagic3 on 11 Jul '11 said:

    Bit obvious really.

    Whack a subsciption fee on things you get on other games (for free) and its bound to make (many) players put their money to something else.

  3. mogel94 on 11 Jul '11 said:

    Just because there is an optional subscription service does not mean that people will not buy MW3. In fact I guarantee that most of the people who buy MW3 won't know or care about COD Elite and as usual COD will for some reason .

    If I'm wrong I'll bite my own head off :wink:

  4. Dom Bom on 11 Jul '11 said:

    First console wars, now Activision vs EA. What next, Action Man vs Ken?

    Action Man would win btw..

  5. TheLastDodo on 11 Jul '11 said:

    Anyone that buys MW3 on PS3 after Broken Ops, don't say you weren't warned.

  6. ste hicky on 11 Jul '11 said:

    i predict that pachters predictions will be predictably predictable forevermore.

    or something....

    cod will clear 20 million just on the mw brand alone. everyone knows that, whether they like it or not.

  7. KMakawa on 11 Jul '11 said:

    Anyone that truly goes for COD this year over Battlefield needs a few nuts tightening in their head.
    Its good if you enjoy it, but yeah.. dont go with the trend and think COD is cool. Its effectively been the same game since 2007, time for something new for me!

    COD: Elite -- something Bungie and many other dev's have been doing for a very long time, for free aswell.

    This, and 'Operation Beachead' DLC Strategys are not cool, not cool at all.

  8. voodoo341 on 11 Jul '11 said:

    Anyone that truly goes for COD this year over Battlefield needs a few nuts tightening in their head.
    Its good if you enjoy it, but yeah.. dont go with the trend and think COD is cool. Its effectively been the same game since 2007, time for something new for me!

    COD: Elite -- something Bungie and many other dev's have been doing for a very long time, for free aswell.

    This, and 'Operation Beachead' DLC Strategys are not cool, not cool at all.

    EA moderator slating the competition. Good to see you're keeping it unbiased Future.

  9. ste hicky on 11 Jul '11 said:

    KMakawa: y'know what? i agree with you but i can't help feel that an ea employee (in a fashion) is trying to sell me an ea product.

    that's not cool either man.

    the kids will go with cod, i'm sure we all know that.

    (voodoo got in there first, seconded)

  10. Paranoimia on 11 Jul '11 said:

    I couldn't care less about the CoD Elite charges. There's only two things making me buy Battlefield instead of CoD: the first is that I think Battlefield will be the better game; the second is Activision themselves - their (Kotick's) attitude sucks.

  11. KMakawa on 11 Jul '11 said:

    KMakawa: y'know what? i agree with you but i can't help feel that an ea employee (in a fashion) is trying to sell me an ea product.

    that's not cool either man.

    the kids will go with cod, i'm sure we all know that.

    (voodoo go in there first, seconded)


    Not selling, otherwise i'd go into a ton of paragraphs on why Battlefield is better.
    It's not bias too, it is just a general opinion on the whole COD/Battlefield thing this year. I truly dislike the way they are going with COD, although I still get them to play with friends. But essentially the DLC Strategy, this Beachead initiative that Activision has created, and now COD Elite. It just seems a bit too slash and dash for the money pots.

    It's cool if you guys see my opinion as bias and whatnot, but I know it isnt. Its just a general distaste towards how Activision have ruined, possibly one of the greatest and most iconic titles that gaming will probably ever see.. atleast for shooters.

    Hate it, how they've used the franchise -.-

  12. ste hicky on 11 Jul '11 said:

    now i'm gonna be a bit pedantic but have you played mw3?

    can you honestly say one is better than the other with any certainty or is you're preference for bf clouding your judgement?

    the ea mod thing doesn't help but as i said i agree, just not sure whether you're impartial enough to make that call and whether i can remove the mod thing from my perception of your comment.

    no disrespect man, i go on about nintendo much to my opinions disadvantage here but i don't work for em, i'm just a fan. i'm sure if i did then my opinion would carry even less weight, if that's possible, and justifiably so. conflict of interests, and all that....

    however, on the 'running cod in to the ground' point i'll go with you all day long there but still i feel they are 2 very different types of fps which cater to different crowds and whether anyone likes it or not: cod will do 3 times bf3's sales figures overall imo just on the mw name alone.

    sad but true, i'm afraid.

  13. KieranTC on 11 Jul '11 said:

    Anyone that truly goes for COD this year over Battlefield needs a few nuts tightening in their head.
    Its good if you enjoy it, but yeah.. dont go with the trend and think COD is cool. Its effectively been the same game since 2007, time for something new for me!

    COD: Elite -- something Bungie and many other dev's have been doing for a very long time, for free aswell.

    This, and 'Operation Beachead' DLC Strategys are not cool, not cool at all.

    You realise the majority of it, stat tracking etc. is free, right?

    Barring the maps being bundled in, Activision haven't said what you get for the premium subscription.

  14. lordirongut on 11 Jul '11 said:

    CoD Elite is really no different to Bungie's service. In their free forms, you get the same and there's the paid for option for the really hardcore. Let's not forget that Bungie Pro has been offered for years.

  15. KMakawa on 11 Jul '11 said:

    now i'm gonna be a bit pedantic but have you played mw3?

    Stood next to a colleague playing it at E3 matey
    That counts, right?! :P

  16. ste hicky on 11 Jul '11 said:

    now i'm gonna be a bit pedantic but have you played mw3?

    Stood next to a colleague playing it at E3 matey
    That counts, right?! :P

    no, not really. did you play it or not? i still can't remove the ea thing from anything you say and i'm sure you could understand why.

    i watched robert bowling playing it on stage but it means little if the pad wasn't in my hand.

    what's the online mode like, you have played that part yeah?

    oh yeah, people mentioning bungie would do well to remember the noble map pack was in halo reach pre release and removed just beforehand.

    bungie are no better on that one i'm afraid.

  17. KK-Headcharge78 on 11 Jul '11 said:

    I'll take both thanks, I'll defect if either is crap to play, which I doubt. Either that or when one becomes too expensive but currently I don't feel either are.

  18. ste hicky on 11 Jul '11 said:

    (addition after a little weighing up): KMakawa, now that i know you're on a corporate ticket man i'm afraid i think even less of your opinion.

    again no disrespect and i genuinely mean no offence but i can't buy in to corporate propaganda from people who's motives are (possibly) not entirely pure.

    call me a cynic if you will, that's just how i roll being the old f*cker that i am and i'd be the exact same if it was an acti/sony/ms/nintendo mod here.

  19. Reegeee on 11 Jul '11 said:

    Let's not forget that Bungie Pro has been offered for years.

    That's the only thing you need to know really. Didn't do Halo any harm.

  20. TheLastDodo on 11 Jul '11 said:

    It's ELiT3 not Elite btw :P.

    Also I've bought more CoD games than BF games in the past three years but I currently own at least three times as many EA games as I do Activision so can someone tell me which side I'm supposed to be biased against? :wink:

  21. Netanel on 11 Jul '11 said:

    people will move away from CoD because each sequel has little to no iteration from the previous title.
    oh sorry, i forgot most people are stupid\suckers. so it'll probably reach 30 mil copies sold.

  22. Noobsaibot on 11 Jul '11 said:

    people will move away from CoD because each sequel has little to no iteration from the previous title.
    oh sorry, i forgot most people are stupid\suckers. so it'll probably reach 30 mil copies sold.

    So i'm automatically stupid because, and despite all it's niggles, I overall happen to enjoy call of duty, is that right?
    Moron. :roll:

  23. Sammy_bham on 11 Jul '11 said:

    "im going to get mw3 coz my mates will get it"

    "ill defect to which ever one is better"

    "battlefield is a COD beater, im going to buy that"

    "im buying battlefield because koticks attitude sucks!"

    "activision have sold out, im buying battlefield!"

    OR... just make up you're own mind. have your OWN opinion. Don't base your actions on what others do. Experience both, and maybe you'll like both? have fun, spend money and enjoy life?

    seriously guys/gals. grow up. buy whatever you want, dont lose sleep over it.

    Buying one game over the other because you dont like one persons attitude? really? okey dokey then.

    but then again, i guess all this is MY opinion right? or... the correct opinion? (lol...)

  24. TheLastDodo on 11 Jul '11 said:

    "im going to get mw3 coz my mates will get it"

    "ill defect to which ever one is better"

    "battlefield is a COD beater, im going to buy that"

    "im buying battlefield because koticks attitude sucks!"

    "activision have sold out, im buying battlefield!"

    OR... just make up you're own mind. have your OWN opinion. Don't base your actions on what others do. Experience both, and maybe you'll like both? have fun, spend money and enjoy life?

    seriously guys/gals. grow up. buy whatever you want, dont lose sleep over it.

    Buying one game over the other because you dont like one persons attitude? really? okey dokey then.

    but then again, i guess all this is MY opinion right? or... the correct opinion? (lol...)

    Your opinion is correct sir. I'll tell you what I'm going to do.

    I'll be buying BF3 but if it sucks I'll trade it for MW3 (I did this last year but with MoH and Black Ops)

    If I'm enjoying BF3 I'll either wait til next year to buy MW3 (after it's been patched a few times & to see if my friends list is still playing it) or I'll put it on the Xmas list.

    Contrary to the internet know it alls, there are some people that like both games, I am one of these people, I enjoy CoD (well the multiplayer), I just can't stand the publisher and some of the players (before anyone a bit sensitive gets all angry, if you've played a CoD game then you know the people I'm talking about.

  25. gmcb007 on 11 Jul '11 said:

    Defect?

    Why is it automatically considered that I can only choose one? I plan to play both for their SP and then move on. This whole FPS war is tiring. They need to stop treating these games like they're the kings of gaming and madatory for each gamer to play. It's like the bloody Cola war all over again...

  26. Very_Silver_Ownz on 11 Jul '11 said:

    '' Contrary to the internet know it alls, there are some people that like both games, I am one of these people, I enjoy CoD (well the multiplayer), I just can't stand the publisher and some of the players (before anyone a bit sensitive gets all angry, if you've played a CoD game then you know the people I'm talking about. ''

    And you tell me off for playing them ? LMAO

  27. justforkicks101 on 11 Jul '11 said:

    i have room for both

  28. TheLastDodo on 12 Jul '11 said:

    '' Contrary to the internet know it alls, there are some people that like both games, I am one of these people, I enjoy CoD (well the multiplayer), I just can't stand the publisher and some of the players (before anyone a bit sensitive gets all angry, if you've played a CoD game then you know the people I'm talking about. ''

    And you tell me off for playing them ? LMAO

    No Silver, theres a good game hidden underneath all the BS of greedy publishers, overpriced map packs, racist tweens, glitchers, hackers, campers etc.

    I've seen you in CoD, you're a professional camper lol.

  29. McCloudUK on 12 Jul '11 said:

    People can spend their money on what they want. Many non-gamers think we're nuts for spending £40 (or more) on a game.

    Personally I'm getting FIFA 12. Thats obliterates the time i'd be spending on either of these :D It doesn't have an elite mode or whatever. As long as Hull City are better than Leeds thats all I need to make it a worthwhile purchase.

  30. murph_77 on 12 Jul '11 said:

    The simple solution for me is I am buying both and the one I end up playing the most is obviously the one that I enjoy the most. Simples.

  31. KMakawa on 12 Jul '11 said:

    The simple solution for me is I am buying both and the one I end up playing the most is obviously the one that I enjoy the most. Simples.


    Very true!