Rumours of Rockstar's mammoth development investments are a given these days and this time it's Max Payne 3 under the spotlight.
The $105 million figure was reached by multiplying the estimated annual cost of the approximately 200-man development team (worked out at $100,000 a year per developer - a $20m annual total) by the total development time of around 5.25 years.
Four million sales seems like a lofty target just to break even, but Bhatia appears optimistic for Rockstar. "Life-to-date, the Max Payne franchise has sold through 7M units between the two prior versions -- Max Payne and Max Payne 2. We think the latest iteration, Max Payne 3, has greater potential for success than either of the two prior versions," said the analyst.
"Although the break-even unit level for Max Payne 3 is likely high -- probably in the 4M units range -- due to its long development time, we think the title is highly anticipated and has potential for upside surprise."
Take-Two recently announced an "expected" March 2012 US and European release for Max Payne 3.
Comments
16 comments so far...
StonecoldMC on 11 Sep '11 said:
Revered franchise releasing on 3 platforms?
ill be sad and amazed if this doesn't break the 4 million barrier.
FlacidDonkeyGuy on 11 Sep '11 said:
Like 4 million across three platforms is a lot, lets see 30+ million PSN accounts, 30+ million XBL subscribers and around another 30+ million Steam accounts.
damoxuk on 11 Sep '11 said:
4 million is a tall order for most Publishers but it's Rockstar we're talking about. If new IP's like Red dead and LA Noire can sell millions then known franchises with Rockstars marketing "should" do the business.
But still it'll be months before it reaches that figure after it's released.
FlacidDonkeyGuy on 11 Sep '11 said:
Gears of War 1&2 each sold well over 4 million copies on the 360, had both games been on ps3 & PC that figure would of been a alot higher.
fitterthanmost on 11 Sep '11 said:
It had better be the best game about shooting dudes in the face ever.
FlacidDonkeyGuy on 11 Sep '11 said:
It will be just not for freemasons.
TheLastDodo on 11 Sep '11 said:
Why would Rockstar spend $105m on a sequel of, at best, a B-Level franchise?
7m sales over 2 games = 3.5m average per game, and weren't they both multi-platform games too?
Not impressive numbers for a Rockstar series.
Does the world need another Max Payne? I'd rather see that money go towards a new Rockstar IP or towards GTA V.
fitterthanmost on 11 Sep '11 said:
Better work my magic and have this game shelved for undisclosed reasons then.
kirankara on 11 Sep '11 said:
Gears only sold about 11 mil over the two games, hardly phenomenal sales, but they were released relatively early in consoles life and I expect 3 will sell almost that on it's own.
As for Mac Payne , I'm with dodo. I though those games were mediocre, and can't believe they spent so much making another. Hopefully they completely overhauled the game and come up with a far better one .
I can see this game failing to break even tbh. Max Payne will only be known to older gamers , and can see this only appealing to them. However , if R* spent that much on game, they will hype this game to hell and back, so money talks , and hype sells , so maybe it will succeed.
I just hope the game doesn't suck as much as other two did.
craiglackenby on 11 Sep '11 said:
Rockstar are Rockstars in comparison to the old Max Payne days so I think peoples anticipation will sell 4 million alone. RDR sold over 8 million I think and that was a wild card imo. They do it with every game make you wait so you're dying to get hold of it.
I'll buy MP3 for sure. I'll buy any Rockstar game as long as it isn't tennis.
DannyShed on 12 Sep '11 said:
"Gears only sold about 11 mil over the two games, hardly phenomenal sales, but they were released relatively early in consoles life and I expect 3 will sell almost that on it's own."
While I agree that 3 will sell quite a lot, you can't say that 11 million sales for 2 games that were solely released for the 360 isn't phenomenal, we're talking about 5+ million sales for each game, and considering other established exclusives sell around the 3 to just over 4 million apart from the Halo franchise, those are quite incredible numbers in my opinion, but meh.
Back to point, like others have said, with this being a well-known franchise and it being R*, with the right marketing, this will easily pass the 4 million mark no problem, especially considering how much less-established games like Red Dead Redemption and LA Noire sold 9 million and 4 million respectively. I'll be getting this on day one regardless
Welsh Jester on 12 Sep '11 said:
The first game was ok, though looking at it a couple of years after release the levels were really tiny and the game was pretty empty.
kirankara on 12 Sep '11 said:
i was comparing it to halo I guess.
they are pretty big sales, and amongst the highest selling exclusives, with only GT and halo I think surpassing it on 360 and ps3. pales into comparison with cod sales on either format, those figures are mind boggling.
I for one wont be buying into hype on this game, and will wait and see. I thought both gta4 and RDR were not as good as made out to be imo, and LA Noire, well, less said about that the better.
rubblemaker on 12 Sep '11 said:
105 million. 200 people. 5 Years.
And what's the betting its campaign will be about 6 hours long?
humanhand on 12 Sep '11 said:
I think some of these questions will be answered once the game comes out, and I'm hopefully that they made the right decision.
crashmer on 12 Sep '11 said:
Companies like Rockstar don't put that much money into just one game. That's what it may seem at first, but that would be stupid.
The technology that is developed will eventually make it's way into other games one way or another, next-gen even. For example, Red Dead Redemption and LA Noire adopted free-roaming gameplay similar to GTA's.