Sony won't confirm it or deny it, and you'd be ridiculed for making the claim in 'informed' internet circles - but the race towards PS4 has begun, with the evidence pointing to a June E3 2012 reveal.
PS3 is only five years into its ten-year life cycle - "I think ten years is the minimum", confirmed outgoing SCEE boss Andrew House in June 2011 - but rumours suggest PS4 development is being fast-tracked with Sony and Microsoft locked in a next-gen 'arms race'; both terrified of what the other may, or may not, be ready to show.
Bottom line: by killing the original Xbox prematurely, Microsoft was able to launch the 360 in Nov 2005, twelve months before PS3 hit Japan in Nov 2006. Only now, five years on, has Sony been able to match 360's installed base, selling PS3 at a loss for years in a bid to catch up - not a scenario they'll be keen to repeat.
The tone was set in March 2011 with Epic Games' next-gen Unreal engine demo. The company passed it off as a hypothetical showpiece - but a deeper strategy is at play. Epic has emerged as the force in current-gen graphics, with its Unreal Engine tech powering series such as Mass Effect, BioShock and Batman. Epic's demo was the first shot in the battle for next gen 'middleware' development tech.
PS3 games are already hard to make, and crafting PS4's ultra-detailed, huge scale, 3D worlds will be even harder. Devs need smart next-gen tools, and whoever leads the way stands to profit for years to come.
Next came E3 in June and - just as it had done six years earlier - Nintendo put a rocket under the industry. This time it announced Wii U, its better-late-than-never HD console.
Despite Nintendo's huge market reach, it's not an overt threat to an established high-end tech player like Sony - in fact, Sony America president Jack Tretton went on record saying they'd not be pushed into a more powerful PlayStation by this new rival. But in hindsight, Wii U still looks like the catalyst for the next chapter of the story.
Spanner in the worksInterestingly, Ubisoft boss Yves Guillemot contradicted Tretton in at least one interview. "(Wii-U) is sending the message the new transition is going to happen - and we're going to have new machines coming soon." Ubisoft was the first third-party company to demo games on 360 with Ghost Recon: Advanced Warfighter suggesting Guillemot's claims shouldn't be dismissed.
In August, Square Enix joined Epic by announcing its own next-gen engine. A supposedly internal demo video appeared on YouTube, showing off some truly amazing lighting effects.
By November 2011, insider chatter was of a next-generation Xbox launch in 2013.
On November 13, Edge magazine claimed that Ubisoft (yes, again) were working with next-gen Xbox dev kits, while Sony had shifted one of its internal studios onto PlayStation 4.
Most tellingly, in late November Sony Europe boss Jim Ryan stated: "I think it would be undesirable to be significantly later than the competition (in relation to the next PlayStation console)".
So, in six months between May and November, Sony had shifted from publicly pooh-poohing the idea of a new console to asserting the need to arrive early in the next generation. We now have a console cold war, with Sony and Microsoft locked in a stand-off over who will be the first to commit. One side has to blink first, and sooner rather than later.
Comments
33 comments so far...
Augustus_aka_AG on 1 Feb '12 said:
I think that Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo should join forces and stop this console war by making a collaboration console.
They could call it the PiiSbox.
rivariad on 1 Feb '12 said:
ps4 may be out at 2014 but there's no possibility of an announcement this summer, i think Microsoft's gonna stay silent too, noone wants to share the public attention with Nintendo
Sixty9Eyes on 1 Feb '12 said:
lol they call it year of next gen? pc has been ahead of the curve for years its all so hilarious. lets hope they dont hold pc development back.
Asinine on 1 Feb '12 said:
That's a terrible name... oh, hang on, I see what you've done
Asinine on 1 Feb '12 said:
Consoles are for the gaming masses, Nintendo nowadays is for the geriatric and toddlers, PC is for the gaming geek. And for me who has them all, I'm a mass gaming geriatric toddling geek.
Weezer on 1 Feb '12 said:
I'm not so sure. Handing out a PC-based target dev kits (if that's even true) is not the same as announcing or speccing a real console. These are very dangerous times for hardware manufacturers and games developers. Every other week there are tales of devs going under or publishers making cutbacks. And now we're all asking for cleverer games with larger worlds in more detail and for the same money (or less). I'm starting to doubt the appetite for Sony and Microsoft to embark on another round of vastly expensive development and manufacturing - especially Sony which had a torrid time with PS3. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a gentleman's agreement to lay off for a year - eke out more profits from existing hardware and IP, and let the turbulent economy settle down. After all, there's no guarantee that these machines will sell in the numbers they're used to judging by the decline in the games market - and it's not like games suddenly got crap or anything; we've never had so many amazing AAA titles. I want the next-gen a much as anyone, but it's just not as simple as some people are making out.
ensabahnur on 1 Feb '12 said:
I really wish magazines would stop with the "year of" titles, especially on the front of their mags. Last months OPM (i think it was OPM) had it plastered over the front of it, between that and this months Play having "GTA5. Best on PS3" on the front cover it just reeks of fanboyism. Plus when these great predictions never come to fruition it just makes them look like complete cocks. I'm not just singling out the PS3 mags for this as the xbox ones are just as bad, its just those are the 2 freshest in my memory.
There's nothing wrong with big-ing up the console your promoting but lets drop the wild speculation and rampant blind fanboyism.
corkscru74 on 1 Feb '12 said:
Yes, because everyone knows the best way to compete with a rival company is to let them have all the attention they could ever want while you sit back and do nothing!
LeX_207 on 1 Feb '12 said:
Is it just me that isn't in a hurry for "next-gen". I'm perfectly happy with my current console and the games available, the quality of graphics, the vastness of in game worlds and the like. Even if it is impossible for developers to push more from the current generation, that's fine with me, if they keep making games at the current high standard then I'm happy. As long as there are new storylines to be told and a few gameplay innovations, I don't need there to be a technical leap in the form of a graphics and processing boost. Plus, with the current state of the world it would be even more difficult for people to justify the mammoth price tag that new consoles would have, considering originally people had difficulty with the prices of the current generation. Furthermore, games may also become more pricey, look to the Vita for an example, some of its games are the same price as console games and it's a portable device. To put it short, I'm happy with what I've got and if games keep being released at the standard of Arkham City, Uncharted 3, Skyrim, etc then I'm perfectly content and excited to see more.
bjjcjc on 1 Feb '12 said:
Well no I wouldn't say it was just you, but I am in the opposite camp. The current gen has enjoyed a longer than normal life cycle. But it is becoming very very stale. I personally don't want to see more of the same, I want to see things move forward. And as far as PC gaming goes, whilst I did put together a decent rig with the intention of doing some gaming, I soon decided PC gaming wasn't for me.
c3dpo on 1 Feb '12 said:
Dont beleive that for one second, sorry. Ps2 only a few games at the very end of its cycle used approx 95% of its power, most didnt even come close.
Secondly, devs are getting lazy due to increased focus on killer franchises and $$$ makers, it costs more to develop efficiently than having oodles of extra HP
Thirdly, I think the games themselves need to evolve, heck where is the killer voice recognition from the kinect? Intergrate this more and give new mechanics?
GFX DONT = great games, simple as!
There is much more that can be done, just there are too many fools stuck in their bubbles. Heck, one idea they could've rekindled / saved the Guitar hero franchise IMO.
Ninty will always lead innovation IMO, Xbox owns online play (PC not included chaps) ;o)
me4pd on 1 Feb '12 said:
"What do we know about the power of PS4?
The likely bet is PS4 will be built around a upgraded version of PS3's Cell processor - with 32 cores, not 8. Sony bought the chip's production plant from Toshiba in 2010. The continuity would be a plus, as devs now understand the chip's unique and challenging architecture - being able to carry that knowledge forward should ensure seriously impressive results."
No. You know nothing. That is a wish list. Nothing more.
Also. The feature just plain ignores comments from Stringer and Hirai saying nothing is coming at e3.
Lastly, wtf do you need the 3 in PSM3 for? In case we thought it was an edition from 1998 about the first PS?
WHITEyy118 on 1 Feb '12 said:
I agree.
It's like they don't read their own articles. Or is it just a plan to get us all doubting Sony.
FlacidDonkeyGuy on 1 Feb '12 said:
What I also find odd is that (if I remember correctly) that someone from Sony said they were no longer going down proprietary route with hardware. As it made it harder to develop games for, ala PS3 (lesson learned?) & this is showcased with the Vita (off shelf parts). Still I find it dumb that Microsoft just don't wait for Trinity APU's instead of going for a hodge podge, "PowerPC" & AMD hybrid APU.
Beebop10 on 1 Feb '12 said:
I'd agree, that in isolation Graphics don't equal great games ,of course they don't . But a good game with great graphics makes for an incredible game. I'd agree with some of the critics though, when they say just levelling up for the sake of levelling up, via a small incremental improvement (i.e., Xbox720 leaked specs) won't justify new consoles. It needs to be a huge step up as Epic have said , one that rivals the current high end PC, or don't bother.
Very_Silver_Ownz on 1 Feb '12 said:
PS1 = 1994
PS2 = 2000
PS3 = 2006
So the PS4 is going to at least get announced this year and probably even release this year.
MattyR95 on 1 Feb '12 said:
Sony need to focus on Vita, Nintendo need to focus on Wii U (Hope they rename it) and Microsoft... kinect, maybe?
Agent75 on 1 Feb '12 said:
Wasn't 2010 and 2011 the year of the PS3? It's still in third place. I can't see Sony showing anything of the PS4 this year, I'd say next year, with a 2014 release. By that time, Wii U will be here, Xbox 720 in 2013. Sony will be last in again, then it'll be the same old. The year of the PS4....
gmcb007 on 1 Feb '12 said:
You get more rumours and speculation on here than you would off the old dolls down at the bingo hall.
flyfletch on 1 Feb '12 said:
lol Deffo, everyone is afraid of Nintendo, no one wants to go toe to toe with them at E3....Especially Huge companies like Microsoft and Sony lmao NOT!!
Phaedros on 1 Feb '12 said:
How could the PS4 ever be released this year when it hasn't even been announced? I mean even games can be announced years before their release. There hasn't even been a rumor about what will be in a PS4 much less any acknowledgement of its existence. 2014 at the earliest.
bjjcjc on 1 Feb '12 said:
Yeh they don't have to be afraid of Nintendo, its not as if the Wii outsold the all mighty XBox 360 and PS3 by millions of uni.....oh wait a minute
flyfletch on 1 Feb '12 said:
I would never deny that they did that, even though it was mostly to casual market, and why not, its all money after all, but i should have been a bit more clear, Sony and Microsoft brush Nintendo off ever time, not because they are better, they aim for a completely different demographic, and this has been abundently clear from the Wii was released. Maybe i am being a bit harsh though, becuase it looks like they may have seen the light this time round, but the problem is, i really think they would have a hard time competing directly with Sony and MS, i also think Nintendo have been aware of this, hence the market the Wii was aimed at. I digress though, the subject is on the Ps4 and i think we wont see anything regarding it this year.
1Nightmare1 on 1 Feb '12 said:
Well according to one of the officials from MS, there aren't going to be any announcements this year on next gen xbox, however if Microsoft is not going to present anything about it on E3 and continue with their casual Kinect crap, then Sony will definably have an advantage of announcing their newer console and blow the show away.
Also I don't believe the rumor of PS 4 having a 32 core processor, that sounds rather ridiculous. Sony already made same mistake with PS 3's cell, and why would they need 32 cores for!? Is the ps4 supposed to simulate earthquakes and moon landings!? Going towards high end PC cpu seems to be a smarter and safer way to go if you ask me.
WHITEyy118 on 1 Feb '12 said:
Sorry if I'm being stupid but are you being serious or is it sarcasm. Because if it's not the latter then facepalm.
I very highly doubt your theory. I mean with VITA now getting released why would SONY then go and trump themselves with a new console towards the end of the year, who would by a VITA then? If you like the VITA is the new console of the year from SONY. PS4 won't be for a few years yet.
sepewrath on 2 Feb '12 said:
Well what you don't want to do is run the risk of having your unveil overshadowed by a full reveal. Its like E3 2006, the Wii stole all the headlines from the PS3 and "old" 360. Its a delicate balance, you don't want to lay down, but being rolled over it just as bad if not worst.
Who do you think the PS2 sold to? That same so called "casual market" The mainstream audience will always decide the market leader, you say it like its something to be ashamed of. Every company wants that audience, their fickle, but their value is immense. They aren't going for any different audience, they are after the same dollar and Nintendo can easily best MS and Sony.
If they have the third party support, neither one of their competitors can match their first party. You put Mario against Uncharted and Mario would destroy it. I know there are some people frothing at the mouth with rage right now, that I said that lol. But its true, a Mario game can sell 30 million copies, its done it a number of times, Uncharted can not.
Old Skool Gamer on 2 Feb '12 said:
Maybe.
Barca Azul on 2 Feb '12 said:
More fool people then, for not buying Uncharted 2 or 3
Angry Birds? been downloaded 500M times.......
Britney Spears, sold over 100 records...........
Does it make them better?
For me, like Sonic, should have stayed 2D anyway a la Super marioworld.
oh and im not in any rush for next gen either.
bjjcjc on 2 Feb '12 said:
I thing your right in the sense that the raw horsepower of the Wii U will probably not be able to compete with the raw horse power of the next gen xbox or playstation.
The point I was making was that the Wii U will be out in 2012 between June and Dec. The point that some gamers 'are happy with this gen' is completely irrelevant here,because at the end of 2012 you will have a scenario where Nintendo will be king of the hill in terms of having the best console on the market.
Put the Wii U in the same arena as the 360 and PS3 and you have the scenario where you have three consoles each with online gaming capabilities. However,the Wii U as a gaming device will be sitting on top of the pile comfortably as it will be able to offer the the most horsepower by some considerable margin, and it has all bases covered in the sense that it can cater for a traditional controller based gaming experience, it can cater for the casual market re motion control, with the added bonus that all Wii hardware and software will work fine with it, and the touch screen on the remote allows for a brand new gaming experience that the other two can't offer.
Considering how Sony got left behind by launching late, is it really in Microsoft and Sony's best interest to give the Wii U an 18-24 month head start in the event of a mid-late 2014 launch, or up to 3 years in the event of a late 2015 launch?
Also consider that Nintendo has stuck rigidly to a 5-6 year console cycle (N64 1996, Gamecube 2001, Wii 2006, Wii U 2012), the chances are if the Playstation 4 did rigidly stick to its 10 year lifecycle and we didn't see a PS4 until 2016, then it wouldnt be competing with the Wii U for very long anyway as we could be seeing a successor to the Wii U around 2017-2018 if Nintendo still stuck to the 5-6 year life cycle.
Whilst 2012 may not be the year of the Playstation, I would feel confident betting a large amount of money we will be seeing and or/hearing about it (as in something official) alot sooner than 2014, and that at least one of the next gen XBox or Playstation will be on the market by December 2013.
Dan D PSM3 on 2 Feb '12 said:
Glad to see everyone debating our article. I'd just like to clarify a few points:
1) Why doesn't it mention Hirai / Sony French exec comments?
It's an article from the PSM3 print edition, written a few weeks ago - before the comments were made. Either way, a denial doesn't mean something won't happen. They're hardly going to say the opposite 'Whoops! Rumbled! We're definitely showing PS4!'.
Remember when Sir Alex Ferguson said he 'wouldn't sell that mob a virus' in relation to Ronaldo's transfer to Real Madrid? It's a different sphere, but the point holds. Sony claimed they wouldn't show Twisted Metal... in the year they showed Twisted Metal. Naturally, it doesn't work in reverse, so a denial isn't a guarantee something will show up, but we'd be naive to take Sony solely on their word when...
2) Evidence is stacking up to the contrary
The obvious portent: there's a lack of confirmed big PS3 exclusives (bar The Last Guardian and The Last of Us). Killzone 4 and Uncharted 4 are almost certainly slated for a 'next gen' system (i.e. PS4). This isn't just deduction, but based on a number of industry conversations we've had.We can't reveal our sources for obvious reasons, but people who would know tell us 'next gen' hardware conversations are well, well underway. I wish we could say more, but we can't. Again, this doesn't mean PS4 will *definitely* be revealed at E3, but it's certain that it's being worked on - as are the games.
3) The next Xbox or Xbox 720 can't be treated in isolation
We've got even better information on the next Xbox, and that is certainly at an advanced stage of planning. Will it be shown at E3? *Probably* - but here's the bind. Sony and MS are locked in an 'arms race' of who will show first, with rumour and counter-rumour affecting each other's development plans. In other words. they're both gambling on what the other may, or may not, show. Neither can afford to launch their next-gen system significantly after the other (an abiding lesson of this gen, after PS3 took *years* to catch up with 360).
In effect, they're locked in a classic economic model 'Prisoner's Dilemma' http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner%27s_dilemma
If both parties agree NOT to show at E3, they both benefit - since it gives then more time to reap profits from this gen, plus delays a huge cost spike.
BUT! If one party 'defects' and shows their hand, they gain all the attention and PR hype from E3, placing them in the box seat for the next-gen, so the other party can't afford *not* to show. Sony have, on many occasions, used the timing of their E3 conference (it's the last of the three) to react to the showings of MS and Nintendo. It would come as no surprise if they have an 'emergency' PS4 pre-visualisation video / demo in case MS break out '720' or whatever it's callled as a surprise.
On the reverse, if they both publically declare they won't show, it sends the other a signal that maybe they should both back down. Or, however unlikely, the execs at both companies have had explicit conversations along the lines of 'let's just agree for us both not to show, so we both maximise the current gen'. In this respect, we have no inside info. Put yourself in Sony's - or MS's shoes. How do you play it?
4) But...
While all the information we have to date points to an E3 reveal for the next Xbox (thus forcing Sony's hand), in the real world, plans change. Info we receive today might no longer hold in four months. It sounds like a cop out, but it is the nature of reality. Look at how Wii U's architecture is still being debated and changed. The 'PS4' that exists today might be no more than a specification template (like a planning permission document), with key devs asked to work against these hypothetical specs a la Killzone 2 CGI debacle. We doubt Sony would risk another CGI 'hoax' reveal again, so this may again dictate the next gen reveal schedule. If they have something to show, that's playable - even for show - then a PS4 reveal looks more likely.
If I was Sony, I'd reveal PS4 using 'CGI footage' of Killzone 4 that looked too good to be true - wait for the crowd to groan - then have a developer walk out on stage, wave, and press pause on a controller... before dipping back into the action.
Look, that's what I'd do. I'm not Sony. This is just wishful stage management based on righting a historical 'wrong'. If you're looking for a delicious swipe, demo PS4 with a giant enemy crab, perhaps.
E3 aside, the next-gen is happening *now* behind the scenes (so much so it can no longer be masked), and the signs still point to a Winter 2013 release for Xbox 720 (name TBC) and, if history is any guide, a late Dec 2013 release for PS4 in Japan (at the earliest), with the rest of the world in early 2014.
Ha! We'll see. We don't print this stuff for fun, that's all we're saying. We're as confident as we can be that it's worth committing to print, even if we can't name our more credible sources. It's entirely possible that neither console will make E3, but that scenario does seems to run contrary to the info we currently hear.
Thanks for the debate, and for keeping an open mind. We'll eat a slice of humble pie - or the banquet of victory - as and when.
Thanks
Dan
p.s. You can hear more of our PS4 thoughts on the PSM3 podcast, available via iTunes or http://podcasts.psm3mag.com/podcast/podcast.xml
ted1138 on 2 Feb '12 said:
rhyfel on 4 Feb '12 said:
a ps4 this year? NO CHANCE, sony has just published huge losses for the last 3 quarters of the financial year "and thats with the ps3 selling well" only a complete brainless idiot would release a new console in these climes but if thay do release a successer to the ps3 and it nose dives it could be the end of sonys gaming arm in my opinion.
ted1138 on 4 Feb '12 said:
Another one...