Most (read: everyone) would say Microsoft lost out in the HD format war, with Sony's Blu-ray filling up the shelves and the Xbox 360 HD-DVD player now little more than a big cream door stop. But does Microsoft think it backed the wrong horse?
"What do you mean?" Xbox UK boss Neil Thompson joked with The Guardian. "The horse that we're fundamentally backing is the one that says the future of entertainment content is online digital distribution. I would argue that we backed the right horse.
"If we're sitting here in 12 or 18 months time, we'll be saying 'why were people even thinking about a disc format when it's really about digital distribution?' Our strategy's been developed for the last six or seven years, and ever since we launched the platform it [online content] has been our big, big, big bet."
Rumours have been rife that the format holder will eventually release a Blu-ray add-on for the Xbox 360, but it's still denying reports left, right and center.
"I think it's much less significant than the transition from VHS to DVD," Thompson continued. "The fact that Sony are desperately trying to deliver an online offering means they probably understand that there's another front they have to develop for."
Alright then, let's all email him and ask exactly how long he think it'll take to download a 15-20Gb disc then. And while we're at it we can also ask how much strain the Euro servers can take if they want 3 million people to all download that 15-20Gb disc at the same time.
The future? Maybe. The next 2 generations? No way.
I'm with the first poster. You try Downloading a 15-20g file in the UK where most ISPs have a limit on the amount you can download a month and even "unlimited" deals give a bollocking for violating their "fair use" policies for having the audactiy for actualy downloading large files.
Those statements from microsoft about not backing HD-DVD seem a bit play ground "yeah, well we didnt even like HD anyway".
Not only is it going to take ages to download HD movies with our pathetic UK broadband, but where on earth are we expected to store all this data.
If your like me i have ALOT of Dvd's and now starting build a BlueRay Collection too. I certainly dont have the storage capacity for downloading HD Movies.
This is microsoft living in the perfect utopia where we all have monster Broadband connections and Tera bytes of storage.
To be honest I can't see digital distribution taking off for a while, firstly because when people pay for things most of the time they want something physical and real for their money, some people enjoy having stacks of DVDs, showing off their film collection or what have you and secondly because I don't think many people have terrabyte hard drives, so how many full length HD films are you going to get on the average HDD anyway? Will you start having to delete old films to make room for new ones? Even with a 120GB HDD I can imagine it getting filled pretty fast and that's when you're not even using it for anything else, like games.
Also, how long would it take to download the f**king things? When you pay for a film in a shop all you have to do is go home, take it out of the box and stick it in your dvd player or blu-ray or whatever and that's it, job done. I don't want to pay for a film that I might be able to watch in a month when I've finally downloaded gigabyte after gigabyte.
Personally I think the only digital distribution most people would bother with is torrents.
Edit Sorry to just restate what everyone's said already, I didn't see any posts when I started writing.
Yea, and the future or travel is hoverboards (according to Back to the Future) but not for decades.
Percentage of people who download their games? A tiny amount. Hell, there are a huge amount of gamers who aren't even online yet.
Just think about each kid who has a games console, i bet 90% of kids aren't allowed online, particularly not if they're hogging up their parents bandwidth downloading 'Generic FPS 3'.
Edit: And if we're going for horse analogies, that's like in 2007's Grand National, Sony backing Silver Birch, which won, and Microsoft backing Mckelvey, which came second, but then microsoft going:
"err... no, we didn't lose, in fact we are backing a 2 year old foal.... in 10 years its gonna WIN!"
This sounds like excuses but he is right in a sense, Microsoft didnt back the wrong horse. HD DVD could have easily won the format war, it didnt simply because Sony were more aggressive in their marketing, i cant recall seeing any HD DVD adverts by Toshiba or ms for that matter.
They did back the wrong horse really, regardless of what they say. They backed HD DVD which is discontinued.
I do agree though, it isn't the same jump from DVD to Blu Ray than it was from VHS. But this is the same for the jump from VHS to Digital Distribution really. I don't think in general the public are ready in their masses to digitally download. With HD-TV's i'd imagine Blu Ray will be the next format and then in about 10 years Digital Distribution may kick in. Maybe more.
People download a lot of movies-some mega hard-drives would be needed. Plus so many people just love having the cases-it is oddly satisfying opening up a new DVD case-it is an actual possession then.
Digital Distribution though, i imagine would be cheaper to buy through so who knows.
With the Wii such a success too-the casual gamer is into games. I doubt they'll be into digital distribution either. Firstly they probably won't even be online.
no matter what everyone says, the way forward is bigger hard drives. with Terabyte drives now in full swing, Bluray or HD DVD doesn't offer the transfer size of speed needed for the future. they were both bad investments. Toshiba has lost billions, and Bluray has cost Sony the market lead in this Generation of consoles to Nintendo and Microsoft. even if the PS3 outsold both consoles for the next 3 years it still wouldn't catch them, the PS3 is too far behind. to be honest, even Sony are moving towards Divx and downloads. one things for sure, Sony have made some nasty mistakes lately, and its cost them big time.
It's already cheaper to buy a 1TB hard drive than 4 standard priced Blu-Ray discs. Obviously nobody buys at full price but even online with some decent deals you'd struggle to get more than 7 or 8 decent new movies.
A much larger number of people own a PC than a 360 or PS3 so as a Microsoft employee, he's possible stating that Media Center's (which can then stream to a 360/PS3) are the way of the future. It makes absolute sense that Digital Distribution (and dodgy torrent sites) are the way of the future until Blu-Ray can reduce it's price point to a reasonable level and compete with Hard Drive prices.
Standard DVD was outselling Blu-Ray and HD-DVD combined by 20 to 1, so there isn't a great level of public demand for either. Some might put this down to the format "war" but the majority claim that PS3's were bought primarily as a Blu-Ray player, so that doesn't hold water.
Also, digital distribution doesn't necessarily mean internet downloads, it can be walking into a store, handing over a flash drive or portable HDD and having it copied over for you. I appreciate that this is a gaming website but since we're talking about HD movies we need to think about the bigger picture.
Also, if anyone finds it useful, Sky Broadband don't have systems capability to actually cap or monitor an individuals downloads. So although they advise of their fair usage policy, they don't attempt to enforce it. Join them and go crazy!
pour ?millions into trying to out-do bluray then say they wernt bothered about it when it fails!?
just admit it u c**t! the world knows it and would make u 10 times more reputable by doing so. untrustworthy.
online isnt the future either - i am constantly getting bitched at for going over my ISP cap and thats with a max package. now they traffic shape me and i need to choose wisely what to download. no more downloading blindly just because i have broadband, unless i know the download is worth it!
Did someone forget to take their medication this morning? Take a deep breath, in with the good, out with the bad!
I see this topic has started kicking up again. Yes downloads probably are the future, but that future is very far away right now. Right now true HD 1080p movies can only come on Blu-Ray, and until world wide (not just the UK) broadband speeds get a hell of a lot faster that is the way it will stay for quite a long time.
Microsoft are just trying to put spin on this because they know there are a lot of people buying PS3's as a Blu-Ray player and not even using it as a games console at all. What makes me laugh is that they say downloads are the way, but the commuication lines cant handle that sort of data transfer, the 360 only offers 720p films and their storage for 360 is hugely overpriced.
HD-DVD failed. Of course they backed the wrong horse! Their online distribution isn't going anywhere anytime soon either. It's like a crippled hooker. The Xbox 360 just isn't equipped thanks to its tiny hard drive capacity, and then you have the myriad of DRM issues. Copyright holders are very reserved and they back physical media (especially Blu-Ray with HDCP) for a reason.
On the wider issue of whether or not digital downloads are the future, I still remain highly sceptical. People like to physically own something. Aside from that, the UK has a rubbish broadband infrastructure.
I know I'm restating what people have already said, but Microsoft's PR spin is ridiculous!
I guess I'm the minority of people who are looking forward to a digital download future. Personally I couldn't really care less about the the actual disc as long as I have the same data available to me on my ever increasing hard drives. I love being able to flick between movies or games without having to switch discs. It makes the whole process a seamless joy to behold.
I do agree that the broadband infrastructure of alot of countries needs an overhaul before we can get the most from digital distribution.
As regards HD-DVD and Bluray? It was all alot of overhyped and overpriced bulls**t anyway so I'm just glad I don't have to hear about it any more.
I typically avoid flame wars, but you guys are all a little off on this. Seriously.
People like to physically own something. Aside from that, the UK has a rubbish broadband infrastructure.
Tell that to Walmart in the US that just got passed by Apple as the biggest music retailer. Tell that to Netflix who are working on a way to deliver movies to you over a console for a nominal fee a month. Tell that to every cable company making a mint off of VoD services.
You are all missing the really big picture. Neither Sony nor Microsoft want you to buy a game in the next 10 years. They will want you to buy a license to play it. Guess what, no hard product, no used sales. That means EVERY consumer who wants to play a game will have to pay the retail for it. No more ebaying games, etc.
Oh, and to anyone who says that the bandwith won't scale. It will. In 3-4 years, 20gb down won't be that much of an issue. Neither will storage.
Is MS off in saying that they didn't back a loser, sure. Does every mega-corporation back a loser once in a while, yeah. What do you want them to say? Better yet, don't answer that. You will have some dumb response that you think is intelligent yet won't be.
It's a fair point Maxximo that it is nice to just have a load of stuff on your HDD that you can just pick and choose from, it's one of the great things about having a PC, but when you're talking about HD movies with a huge filesize in addition to the other points made about downloading them, filling up your HDD and all that, I can't be the only person who's knackered a hard drive in their lifetime. I've had a couple fail on me in the past but thankfully I had everything backed up on DVDs, now if you've got a terrabyte HDD filled up with all these films, you're going to have to burn a few hundred DVDs to back it all up to protect your investment (assuming you even can with copy protection) so at the end of the day you still have to pay, you'll end up with a few hundred DVDs as opposed to however many Blu-Rays and it'll be a whole lot more hassle.
Can't be bottomd with all this technical s**t! Me? I just care about the games, sod everything else! Like others before me have said, let them come live here and try to download massive files on a regular basis. Not easy!
This graph here is nearly 2 years old now, but I think it shows a fairly good trend on connection speeds. In the Far East you might get away with digital distribution fairly soon, but MS has no market over there. So they're limited to the US and Europe, which are among the slowest on the chart.
Rant Time! And, as people have mentioned already, download limits. I have an unlimited connection, but it maxes out around 13mbps. Even at full whack it'd take a couple of days constant downloading to get the equivalent of a single HD or Blu-ray disc. And then you have limited storage space. Even the 120Gb 360 HDD - that's like 13 DVDs worth at the very most. And you still need space for game saves, profiles and any custom settings you want. And you can only have one drive connected at a time.
Consider the "average" 360 owner, who has 7 games. Let's extend that to the next generation with 25Gb games (Blu-ray size) - they can only get 5 games and that's their entire drive used up. No space for more downloads, no space for movies, no space for demos. So MS has a useless service for them - they can't buy any more games or watch any movies. Smart move. No demos means players can't try new games, so they then rely on people who buy blindly. But wait, no point because they can't store them anyway. Smart move. No XBLA games either, so bye bye to the indie devs.
Two things need to happen before digital distribution can be a company focus. Firstly, they need to reduce the cost and limitations on hardware. Bigger drives for less money. And more than one at a time. Secondly, and much harder, a massive upgrade in connection speeds ALL OVER THE WORLD. Can they afford to assume it's going to improve in the next year or two? If the UK is anything to go by, not likely - and we're a small country. Imagine the hundreds of thousands of miles cables in the USA would need to cover. Rolled out by 2010? I don't think so.
So until then, the only way to go is physical media. Games got too big for CDs so we moved to DVDs. Games are getting too big for DVDs, so we need to move to Blu-ray. There is no other choice. If they stick to their current plan the next console they make will be their last.
Oh, and to anyone who says that the bandwith won't scale. It will. In 3-4 years, 20gb down won't be that much of an issue. Neither will storage.
You make it sound like I am some sort of idiot. The UK government and BT seriously missed the boat when it came to upgrading the networks, and we are many years away from the sort of speeds we need for such services. Indeed, much of the country still doesn't have access to 8MB speeds. And what about download limits?
Currently we do have VoD, but this is standard definition and is streamed. When it comes to video games is streaming over the internet really that viable? What about the convenience factor? It would take many hours to download a HD film/game. Then there are the copyright issues. Most copyright holders of television and film are located in the US, and this is the major reason why European countries still don't have access to much of the download material the US does. Licensing is a big problem, and it is as much a legal issue as it is anything else.
Of course digital distribution will be the future - but it is a long way off
I know it sounds stupid, but when I buy a film or game I want a box to put on my shelf. It's the fun of collecting things.
Anyway, I'm backing Blue-Ray and DVD. Downloads do not appeal to me in the slightest. And if that's what the next-gen Xbox ends up as then they have lost a customer.
I'm with the first poster. You try Downloading a 15-20g file in the UK where most ISPs have a limit on the amount you can download a month and even "unlimited" deals give a bollocking for violating their "fair use" policies for having the audactiy for actualy downloading large files.
Those statements from microsoft about not backing HD-DVD seem a bit play ground "yeah, well we didnt even like HD anyway".
Well, then let me get the Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaambulance out for you Redcoats then.
Over here in the US, I've got a 15Mb synchronous pipe going into my house for $45/mo., and honestly, it takes me very little time to download any content, HD or otherwise. I can easily do an Xbox Live 720p HD Movie rental within an hour, which isn't anything if you're already playing a game.
Honestly, don't lambast Microsoft because they're actually looking forward--if you want to tee off on anyone, tee off on your ISPs that are overcharging for their pathetic excuses for broadband.
And yeah, the guy's right--just like music (remember the idiot naysayers saying digital distro wouldn't work prior to iTunes dropping its bomb on the scene?), movies and digital distribution is the way things will be going. May not be tomorrow, may not be a year from now, but it's coming, and it's likely sooner than we think.
It would take many hours to download a HD film/game.
And look how mental people went when they found out that they'd have to wait a whole 20 minutes while DMC4 installed
That's because Blu-Ray is the 'superior' format.
Seriously--the inferior format has always won format wars, and it will continue to be like that for some time, sad to say. VHS was inferior to Beta, cassettes were inferior to 8-track (you know this is true if you're an audiophile...), DVD was inferior to DivX, and Blu-Ray was inferior to HD-DVD.
If anything, Sony finally learned its lesson from the VHS/Beta wars and realized that the inferior product would win. So thanks to that realization, PS3 owners (the few that buy games, at any rate) will have to endure 20-60 min install times because their format is so superior.
In any case I was mentioning the 20 minute wait just because 20 minutes is considerably less than several hours, or days, which is what it would probably take us poor, technologically backwards, Englishmen to download HD content over here, ergo, it just might p**s some people off and not be the way they'd want to buy a film.
Is he sick or something? Can you imagine if all the games and films you got you purchased digitally. All your games and films you bought over the internet "YUuuCCK!". The best part of getting a game or film is looking around a store, and picking up that box and looking at the covers. "Digital Distribution...Pathetic!"
I do have to agree with the people who like boxes - I'm a big fan of having something physical as well. I like being able to see my collection in front of me.
And incidentally, the reason for the long installs on Blu-ray (and mandatory is retarded) is the read speed of the current PS3 drives. It's all about the load times. Like 4x, 8x, 16x, 32x CD and DVD drives, the next generation of BR player will be faster and those installs won't be necessary.
But the global broadband infrastructure upgrade will not be in the next couple of years. By 2018 certainly. 2015 maybe. But not a hope by 2010.
I'm with the first poster. You try Downloading a 15-20g file in the UK where most ISPs have a limit on the amount you can download a month and even "unlimited" deals give a bollocking for violating their "fair use" policies for having the audactiy for actualy downloading large files.
Those statements from microsoft about not backing HD-DVD seem a bit play ground "yeah, well we didnt even like HD anyway".
Well, then let me get the Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaambulance out for you Redcoats then.
Over here in the US, I've got a 15Mb synchronous pipe going into my house for $45/mo., and honestly, it takes me very little time to download any content, HD or otherwise. I can easily do an Xbox Live 720p HD Movie rental within an hour, which isn't anything if you're already playing a game.
Honestly, don't lambast Microsoft because they're actually looking forward--if you want to tee off on anyone, tee off on your ISPs that are overcharging for their pathetic excuses for broadband.
And yeah, the guy's right--just like music (remember the idiot naysayers saying digital distro wouldn't work prior to iTunes dropping its bomb on the scene?), movies and digital distribution is the way things will be going. May not be tomorrow, may not be a year from now, but it's coming, and it's likely sooner than we think.
Well, you’re the luck one then. I pay in your money about $140 a month for a “3MB” line. Reality, is If I stay up till 3am, then maybe I get nearer to 3MB, otherwise its much less. I consider myself lucky to get a download speed of 100KB.
I live in the second largest city in Spain, they don’t have Fibre cables yet, so consider the rest of the country. Yes and some will make some North Africa jokes at this point, thanks, but its not just Spain.
As for Music, great its 4MB a song, but ill still take the CD’s thanks, I am a collector. I use Itunes, but my PC has fallen over twice in six months, fortunately I back up on a 500GB HDD, but even that is not completely fail safe. Plus I am still in the minority that even back up. Yes you can get more Digital downloads, but I am not convinced all consumers want it. People still have issues working a VCR, so ordering DLC over the web is not going to take over in 12-18 months as stated.
Of course both MS and Sony would like people to download everything, it takes retail out the distribution chain and they make all the money, but that is still a long way off IMO.
Im not knocking Xbox 360 or MS for their product which I consider pretty, but the digital media free world is a long way off.
While digital distribution for movies is not exactly for right now, I can see it taking off in much the same way it has for music. Going forward we will see terabytes rather than gigabytes become the storage norm, enabling movies to be stored in a library beneath your TV.
To be fair for downloading times, anyone who has actually downloaded a movie from Xbox Live, the movie streams in the background while you watch, allowing instant access, much like a disc.
Alright then, let's all email him and ask exactly how long he think it'll take to download a 15-20Gb disc then. And while we're at it we can also ask how much strain the Euro servers can take if they want 3 million people to all download that 15-20Gb disc at the same time.
The future? Maybe. The next 2 generations? No way.
you wouldnt download the whole disc,just the movie or game which doesnt take up the whole disc.
lets say you order a blu ray film from amazon and it takes 1-2 days for delivery and to download takes 2 days what is the difference. you get to keep the film either way. if standard def films can be watched on the fly down connections now i reckon it could be quicker to download than order films online and receive them through the post. not sure how you would give them as presents to people though!
Oh, and to anyone who says that the bandwith won't scale. It will. In 3-4 years, 20gb down won't be that much of an issue. Neither will storage.
You make it sound like I am some sort of idiot. The UK government and BT seriously missed the boat when it came to upgrading the networks, and we are many years away from the sort of speeds we need for such services. Indeed, much of the country still doesn't have access to 8MB speeds. And what about download limits?
Currently we do have VoD, but this is standard definition and is streamed. When it comes to video games is streaming over the internet really that viable? What about the convenience factor? It would take many hours to download a HD film/game. Then there are the copyright issues. Most copyright holders of television and film are located in the US, and this is the major reason why European countries still don't have access to much of the download material the US does. Licensing is a big problem, and it is as much a legal issue as it is anything else.
Of course digital distribution will be the future - but it is a long way off
i'm in an area that can have speeds up to 24mb and it is being rolled out fairly quickly. considering we have only had broadband for a few years its speed has increased at least 16x depending where you live.
also, steam is digital distribution happening right now so how can it be along way off? itunes is digital distribution also.
If that's been their strategy all along (which is no great surprise), then why did they faff about with a 20GB hard disk in the 360?
That, my friend, is a very good question.
The majority of Xbox 360 owners either own a 20 GB HDD or don't have one at all, I'd wager on only a minority owning the 120 GB HDD and they'll be mostly Elite owners as the standalone unit sells at an outrageous Ł130.
Looking at the Video Marketplace, the average standard definition movie (with stereo sound and NO subtitles) is around 1-2 GB with hi-def ones coming in at around 6-7 GB max. Now when I owned the 20 GB HDD, I wouldn't have had enough space for one HD movie but now I have the 120 GB HDD it's not a problem. What is a problem though is that I'm hearing impaired so I find the lack of subtitles annoying and despite the fact I have 70 GB of free space, each movie I download can only be kept for 24 hours once I've started watching it. So what again was the point in selling a 120 GB HDD for Ł130?
IMO, digital distribution of movies like what Microsoft are offering with the 360 is only going to be of interest to people who rent movies now, not the people who regularly buy them. Personally I prefer to buy them on a disc so I can watch them when I like and how many times I like plus they have basic features like subtitles and DD5.1 surround sound. Oh and extras. Also I don't believe the Video Marketplace has anything to match the quality of a decent BD (or HD DVD) as they're encoded at 1080p not 720p. The movies Microsoft offer would fit on a DVD and are clearly inferior to the ones I buy on Blu-ray and some are inferior even to DVDs!
If they do start offering 1080p ones then I'd dread to think how long they'd take to download seeing as Zodiac in 720p took the best part of 18 hours on my 8 Mbps connection. And I won't even mention that many UK-based ISPs have a Fair Usage policy in place that means downloading 50 GB files is not going to be a regular occurence anytime soon. None of that will bother people who only want to watch the movie in SD but I'd imagine that people who like collecting movies will have something to say against services like the Video Marketplace.
also, steam is digital distribution happening right now so how can it be along way off? itunes is digital distribution also.
Steam is PC only at the moment and not every game can be downloaded through it. Given how many people own PCs worldwide, I'd guess at only a minority of people using this service to purchase their games through. Digital distribution of games is still in its infancy and I'm not convinced it will ever replace physical media personally.
Also there is a big, big difference between downloading a 5 MB MP3 tune and a 50 GB movie (like a 1,000 times larger!!!) so I'd say that, here in the UK, we have a long, long way to go before we can download large movie files in seconds like we can our music. Then there's the question of whether you're actually renting them or buying them for keeps. If you're keeping them then you have to consider storage space, not something most people think about when buying movies on a disc...
To the IDIOT that says sony wont catch up to microsoft and nintendo in this generation console wars, well let me see microsoft in 3 years since the xbox 360 was released have have sold 17 odd million consoles, while sony have sold 11 odd million in 1.5 years, ummmm so they will never catch up hey!, well lets wait til the end of year figures before making silly comments like that lol.
To the IDIOT that says sony wont catch up to microsoft and nintendo in this generation console wars, well let me see microsoft in 3 years since the xbox 360 was released have have sold 17 odd million consoles, while sony have sold 11 odd million in 1.5 years, ummmm so they will never catch up hey!, well lets wait til the end of year figures before making silly comments like that lol.
Anyway, I'm backing Blue-Ray and DVD. Downloads do not appeal to me in the slightest. And if that's what the next-gen Xbox ends up as then they have lost a customer.
I'm like you. Maybe I'm just old-fashioned but I like having a shelf full of CDs, DVDs and BDs. I'm a collector, I like to have something physical to show for the money I've spent and buying a movie or game via digital distribution takes all that away from me.
MS doesn't care about the UK or and backwoods farmer who can't download digital content. They are like any other corporation. They are looking at major markets. i.e. Large Cities with great networking infrastructures and Money to spend.
Comcast subscribers in the Twin Cities will be able to drink from the DOCSIS 3.0 firehose tomorrow as the company launches its new 50Mbps down, 5Mbps up broadband tier. The superfast Internet is expensive, too: pricing starts at $149.95 per month.
Alright then, let's all email him and ask exactly how long he think it'll take to download a 15-20Gb disc then. And while we're at it we can also ask how much strain the Euro servers can take if they want 3 million people to all download that 15-20Gb disc at the same time.
Agreed, while online distribution works for stuff like music, hi-def movies and games area different matter.
And not only on the users side but also on the providers side, think of the connection and servers needed to supply as you say 3+ million people downlaoding a 20Gb file.
- So the provider will have to fork out mass amount for decent servers to give the user a decent speed...
- Users have to fork out for high speed net connection and once they have downloaded one game/movie they can say bye bye to their monthly usage limit.
- Finally say goodby to to your net connection while your downloading said movie, this could be anything from 1 day onwards... no online gaming/streaming of movies in that time for you mister.
- And finaly, do people want to get rid of solid disc based media, I personally much rather have a disc and case, and judging by the recent release of GT5 at least one million people feel the same.
MS doesn't care about the UK or and backwoods farmer who can't download digital content. They are like any other corporation. They are looking at major markets. i.e. Large Cities with great networking infrastructures and Money to spend.
Comcast subscribers in the Twin Cities will be able to drink from the DOCSIS 3.0 firehose tomorrow as the company launches its new 50Mbps down, 5Mbps up broadband tier. The superfast Internet is expensive, too: pricing starts at $149.95 per month.
If thats the case they are probably ignoring 90% of their consumers, not exactly forward thinking.
I live in a city of 2m plus people, but the ISP suck Mucho!!
Plus there are not many businesses in today's economies currently ready to invest in upgrading the systems.
The future maybe, but its over 5 years away and this guy saying 12-18 months is clearly out of touch of reality.
Download speeds are only as quick as the other end can upload as well. Does not matter if you have a 50MB connection if the site your connecting to can only upload 250KB!!
My apologies by the way. I sometimes forget that there is such a large difference in broadband depending on your country. Even though, 2,3, or even 5 years down the line, assuming you know what is coming woiuld be a mistake. Also, everyone forgets about compression. Not every developer is an idiot like the MGS4 guy. Compression works well in a lot of situations, and it gets better on a regular basis. If we were still using the compression from the PS1 era, games would need to be 3-5 DVD's long (even a platformer). At some point, someone will find a sound compression methodology that will cause us to reflect on the days of the MP3 and .avi.
Good conversation though once it got out of company bashing
"I live in a city of 2m plus people, but the ISP suck Mucho!!"
You must have missed the part where I said Large Cities with great networking infrastructures and Money to spend. i.e. N.Y., L.A., Chicago
I am sure they are thinking about your city just not on a first tier basis. It's like the way they release there hardware systems. Release to the people that can access the service, workout the kinks, continue distributing to further regions as they become available.
Don't forget they have great systems in place already. It probably won't cost MS much to add this to their Xbox Live service already. So they aren't going to lose much money if it is available, but you can't access it.
Also, everyone forgets about compression. Not every developer is an idiot like the MGS4 guy. Compression works well in a lot of situations, and it gets better on a regular basis.
The thing is that compression means you lose quality but it is necessary to get around bandwidth issues when downloading. For example, a standard definition movie on the 360's Video Marketplace is around 1 GB with no subtitles and stereo sound but a dual-layer DVD can hold 9 GB of data so picture quality is better plus it can have a Dolby Digital 5.1 or DTS soundtrack plus subtitles, commentaries and extras.
With Blu-ray movies the 50 GB disc allows lossless audio to be stored and high-quality video encoded at 1920x1080 but there's no way in the next 18 months that it's going to be feasible to download those kind of sizes in this country. It speaks volumes that hi-def movies on the Video Marketplace are 720p only and typically 6-7 GB, in others words they'd fit on a DVD!!!
Well well well... I've been saying this all along and had my fair share of flames for it on here, but look at this! How quickly people change their minds.
So the realization hits home. Microsoft and their box of lies aren't coming to the Blu-ray party. The 360 is looking just a little more tainted today. Red ring of death, no wi-fi, no blu-ray, no hard drive big enough for download movies. Yes, sure, its all about the games. It has to be - that's all there is left! One might wonder why the 360 didn't launch at a price comparable with the Wii.
Maybe a few smart folk will still be able to make some money from selling their 360 on e-Bay to get a PS3, before the 360 goes RROD out of warranty and the whole platform sinks next year.
Anyway, back to the point in hand... To echo everyone else, HD VOD is not ready for the web yet. VOD is okay for Virgin and BT who have local servers and infrastructure, but not for web distribution. Here's a small sample of the problems that are ahead for ISP's in the middle, distributors and the general public.
My opinion is that initially - ISP's will shape traffic, in the same way that they have been with BitTorrent, only traffic shaping will take place irrespective of protocol. As a result, streamed movies will take longer to initialize (start playing) and will be more likely to stutter and run at a lower quality (not 1080p!) based on location and contention ratios. Downloaded movies will take longer to retrieve - bit for bit than other smaller downloads based on bandwidth connection.
I'm just going to come out and say it! I don't like the idea of digital distribution. Not if Hard drives will be used.
Hard drives are mechanical, they fail! At least if my DVD player breaks I can run to Argos or some other store and pick up a new one within 20 mins. What happens if my HD dies? Goodbye shows until I spend time downloading you all again.
Physical discs for me all the way. Now if Solid State drives become cheaper and more common, that's a different story.
Well well well... I've been saying this all along and had my fair share of flames for it on here, but look at this! How quickly people change their minds.
O.K. I've just spent the last 20 minutes reading everyones posts and no-one seems to notice the main reason most of us buy DVD's and Blu-rays, the bonus content. Back in the early days of DVD all you got was the movie looking prettier on a nice shiny disc instead of a chunky plastic VHS cassette. Then some bright spark decided to slap some makings of and commentaries on 'em and the DVD market exploded. Suddenly we could listen to a director talk us through how they made the movie. O.K. so some of them just waffled on about b******s, but the ones who made an effort made the movie even more special.
Don't believe me? Watch the video commentary on the special edition of Dogma or the hour long documentary on the making of The Thing, or for that matter almost any of the bonus content on the Alien Quadrilogy, then tell me they don't add to the experience. Is Microsofts DLC gonna include different commentary tracks or PiP bonus content you can turn on & off during the movie? Somehow I doubt it. Maybe most people don't give a s**t about bonus content and just want to watch the movie, but I'll bet budding filmmakers do. The ones who'll be making the Terminators and LOTR of 2019. These are the people the movie industry depends on and if MS isn't giving them the content they're used to, they'll be buying Blu.
It took me a while to transfer to DVD from VHS. Didn't really care about the bonus content. All I knew was that I could get movies for Ł5 now that the new format had hit so I stuck with it until 2003 when DVD players hit the sub Ł60 mark.
Once the price of the movies are reasonable along with the players, they'll shift all right.
Now that DVD movies are cheap the sales for them aren't slowing down in this world of hi-def just yet.
It will be interesting to see what happens from here on in.
Here in the states, the limit on bandwidth is only determined by how much you wanna pay per month. 20 gigs is not a big file download from a dedicated server if you have Cox Prefered High Speed Internet or FiOS Prefered where you get about 25-35 mb/s. Most new computers have dual 10/100/1000 anyways, so its not a prob there either.
Anyway, back to the point in hand... To echo everyone else, HD VOD is not ready for the web yet. VOD is okay for Virgin and BT who have local servers and infrastructure, but not for web distribution. Here's a small sample of the problems that are ahead for ISP's in the middle, distributors and the general public.
i hate to point out that blu ray is not ready for the main stream yet, as far as i understand it, it is dwarfed by dvd sales still. i reckon that by the time blu ray is the format of choice and dvd is dead that HD downloads will be a reality. also once cheap blu ray players come out that can be updated i think a lot of people will opt to buy one of those rather than a PS3 which will become a games machine then.
you always say how the PS3 is the console of choice and the xbox is crap but surely choice is a good thing as sony cant charge what the hell they like. in terms of games the ps3 isnt there yet and thats what really counts.
also, MS arent just in the console market so this is not only relevant to the 360, it affects PC's as well so look at the bigger picture.
MS backed the wrong format. And I don't udnerstand what people are moaning about 20mbit Virgin broadband is fantastic. I get download speeds of 2400kbs.
MS backed the wrong format. And I don't udnerstand what people are moaning about 20mbit Virgin broadband is fantastic. I get download speeds of 2400kbs.
Some of us (me included) only have access to crappy BT phone lines
So due to my old lines, etc I only get around 1.8mbit.
MS backed the wrong format. And I don't udnerstand what people are moaning about 20mbit Virgin broadband is fantastic. I get download speeds of 2400kbs.
Some of us (me included) only have access to crappy BT phone lines
So due to my old lines, etc I only get around 1.8mbit.
christ, where do you live? i get about 7.5 mbit and i have a BT line.
MS backed the wrong format. And I don't udnerstand what people are moaning about 20mbit Virgin broadband is fantastic. I get download speeds of 2400kbs.
Some of us (me included) only have access to crappy BT phone lines
So due to my old lines, etc I only get around 1.8mbit.
christ, where do you live? i get about 7.5 mbit and i have a BT line.
In Surrey, thing is I'm right near the exchange but my building has some old wiring. BT won't do anything about this though. On my net connection I'm supposed to be gettign up to 8mbit.
My cuz down the road has a Virgin 20mbit. Darn my building
MS doesn't care about the UK or and backwoods farmer who can't download digital content. They are like any other corporation. They are looking at major markets. i.e. Large Cities with great networking infrastructures and Money to spend.
Translation:
Microsoft don't care about 90% of its customer base, just the 10% that might prove a point they're trying to make.
That sounds logical.
Plus, are Microsoft ignoring the fact that by the time the system is viable, the PS3 will have both a video download service and a Freeview TV recorder?
Both would need content that could be KEPT though, rather than just rented, in order to compete with phyisical media of any kind. Personally, I could see the media card idea taking off far in advance of any decent download of any 1080p content to keep.
I don't think Microsoft is ignoring anything. They already have in the works and have demonstrated Xbox 360 IPTV. No $100+ digital tv tuner purchase, like that required for Freeview TV Recorder.
Not to mention I already have my Xbox 360 connected to my Media Center PC streaming live tv already. You can record any show or movie you like and keep it as long as you want.
Many corporations do not do things logically, they tend to work with things more logistically.
I remember reading an interesting article on Micheal Bay and his anger with his Transformers being supplied to the comsumers exclusively on hd-dvd.
His apparent "conspiresy theory" was regarding Microsoft giving millions to companys such as Paramount to back hd-dvd whilst microsoft actually had no interest in the hd-dvd format at all..
According to Bay, it was an elaberate attempt for Microsoft to destroy the hd-disc war, thus allowing Microsoft to contine to push with their high speed downloadable content...
At the time of reading that article, I thought it was typical Bay speaking nonsence but reading this article actually has me thinking....hold up..was he actually right?
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at least one million people feel the same.
