The current generation of consoles still has three to four more years before newer hardware hits the market, but Nintendo's next may arrive sooner, according to one analyst.
Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian said in an investor note on Monday, "At this point, we believe the consensus opinion among industry professionals is that the next significant hardware refresh is unlikely to occur before 2011, and more likely in 2012."
But he said Nintendo's next home console could arrive before then. "One possible exception to console timing may be Nintendo, which could opt to upgrade the Wii with faster processing power, DVD capability and/or greater storage."
The original Xbox had roughly a four year run before its successor Xbox 360 came to market. PS2 was out for about six years prior to the release of PS3, and Nintendo's GameCube had a five year run prior to Wii's launch.
Sebastian also noted that Microsoft recently began production of a 65nm-based CPU for Xbox 360, and is also working on cutting costs in other areas related to Xbox 360 hardware.
The company is expected to cut the retail price of Xbox 360 later this year.
Commenting on the European market following last week's Leipzig Games Convention, Sebastian also noted Sony's heavy PS3 presence at the show. But he said the console is still not yet priced for true mass market penetration.
"While Sony is clearly not standing still, and is demonstrating some better momentum in North America, we do not believe the PS3 is likely to gain significant market share until hardware prices reach mass market levels," he said.
It may arrive sooner but i doubt it'll be more powerful than either the 360 or PS3 & the new demographic arent going to buy another just because it has better graphics anyway. So I dont see how it will make Sony or MS jump into the next gen.
Bleedin hell! Another "analyst" story. I've got to seriously think about even bothering with this site anymore. I read an interesting headline and it turns out to be more bored analyst bulls**t!
It may arrive sooner but i doubt it'll be more powerful than either the 360 or PS3 & the new demographic arent going to buy another just because it has better graphics anyway. So I dont see how it will make Sony or MS jump into the next gen.
If it's something amazing, like a step towards VR, even without amazing graphics (although I disagree, i think nintendo's next console will be on a par with the 360) if it takes off like the Wii sales will force Sony and MS to do something.
They can't just sit by and watch Nintendo lengthen their lead, can they?
Oh yes, I'm sure Nintendo will be in a hurry to bring out their next console while this one is still selling like hotcakes. Makes loads of sense to me. Tell the truth CVG, you really go out and ask crazy drunken street bums these questions don't you?
My prediction is that Nintendo would be stupid to bring out a new console before the others. They should reap the benefits of the market leading machine first
Its market leader currently, with having a “lower spec” machine, it does not need to bring another machine out yet. If its not broken, don’t fix it. It’s the innovation of the machine that makes it sell well. Would Wii owners want a Wii2? Probably not. Look at the N64 and Came cube, no where near as good as the SNES.
If it continues to sell so well, why would they want to confuse the market to choose between the Wii and Wii2. Its not designed to challenge the 360 or PS3 on the same level and created its own market.
My prediction is that Nintendo would be stupid to bring out a new console before the others. They should reap the benefits of the market leading machine first
Its market leader currently, with having a “lower spec” machine, it does not need to bring another machine out yet. If its not broken, don’t fix it. It’s the innovation of the machine that makes it sell well. Would Wii owners want a Wii2? Probably not. Look at the N64 and Came cube, no where near as good as the SNES.
If it continues to sell so well, why would they want to confuse the market to choose between the Wii and Wii2. Its not designed to challenge the 360 or PS3 on the same level and created its own market.
I agree with you there.
Its questionable whether there's any real long-term benefit to being the first to market anyway. History shows that its not quite as clear cut as that. The PS2 came after the Dreamcast and has slaughtered it in sales, whereas the 360s' early introduction gave it a good head start against the PS3, but its far from certain that this will help it maintain such a lead in the long run.
I think its way too early to tell, but it should be interesting to see who kicks off the next console cycle and whether this has any real impact on their position in the market. On past performances, I'd say anything's possible.
(I think my assessment's pretty fair. Can I be an analyst now?)
If you want Wii type games and hi-def next gen graphics, then you've probably already got a Wii+360 or a Wii+PS3. So who would they sell this to?
If you want "next gen" graphics, then you're not going to get very far with either the 360 or the PS3, since both are (quite obviously) only capable of "current gen" graphics.
What you'll need is a top-of-the-range PC and a copy of Crysis. Set all the graphical settings to maximum, and that'll probably be the closest you can get to "next gen" (i.e. PS4 and the next XBox) graphical quality.
Its questionable whether there's any real long-term benefit to being the first to market anyway. History shows that its not quite as clear cut as that. The PS2 came after the Dreamcast and has slaughtered it in sales, whereas the 360s' early introduction gave it a good head start against the PS3, but its far from certain that this will help it maintain such a lead in the long run.
In a previous thread here at CVG, I compared the sales figures of every console generation since the original NES, and found that first to market consoles have NEVER been the ones to have the most sales of their generation.
Typically, it's the consoles that are released somewhere toward the middle that "win". For example, the PS2 was the second console of the previous generation (after the Dreamcast, and before the XBox and GameCube), and the PS1 was the second-to-last console of the fifth generation (after the 3DO, CD32, Jaguar, and Saturn but before the N64).
My prediction is that Nintendo would be stupid to bring out a new console before the others. They should reap the benefits of the market leading machine first
Its market leader currently, with having a “lower spec” machine, it does not need to bring another machine out yet. If its not broken, don’t fix it. It’s the innovation of the machine that makes it sell well. Would Wii owners want a Wii2? Probably not. Look at the N64 and Came cube, no where near as good as the SNES.
If it continues to sell so well, why would they want to confuse the market to choose between the Wii and Wii2. Its not designed to challenge the 360 or PS3 on the same level and created its own market.
I agree with you there.
Its questionable whether there's any real long-term benefit to being the first to market anyway. History shows that its not quite as clear cut as that. The PS2 came after the Dreamcast and has slaughtered it in sales, whereas the 360s' early introduction gave it a good head start against the PS3, but its far from certain that this will help it maintain such a lead in the long run.
I think its way too early to tell, but it should be interesting to see who kicks off the next console cycle and whether this has any real impact on their position in the market. On past performances, I'd say anything's possible.
(I think my assessment's pretty fair. Can I be an analyst now?)
Well the problem there is that you are assuming that markets, which are man made, act in a rational way. The logic of competition and its relationship with profit, means companies often do irrational things in the constant drive to get ahead (ie, introduce technical innovation, before value has been realised on previous technology). Its kind of why we historically have economic crisis.
So on that bombshell, who'd be an analyst...oh wait I am one. Well don't worry, the real trick to being an analyst (and a journalist) is not to write truths and expose the logical reality staring you straight in the face, but to perpetuate the constant drive to change, otherwise there would be nothing much to sell.
Can't see this happening with the Wii still selling like hot cakes.
Even if most of those were sold to casuals it would take something really special to make some gamers to ever take a gamble on a Nintendo machine again.
An updated upscaling HD wii is very possible. I don't think we're talking about a new console. Just an update. Of course, being Nintendo b/c is very likely.
Personally, I feel that MS is the most likely to release a new console 2010-2012. Sony are riding high on the wave of the caca bird's main export with regard to the PS3 economy. Sony would be economically paralysed to compete with an early release of a PS4. MS could theoretically release a next console and present themselves as a generation ahead of the competitors. At the very least it would further capitalise on Sony's already stretched coffers.
The failure to reduce the PS3 price at this stage to force mass market adoption is the sign that Sony is already in trouble. It would be a very risky gamble for Sony to release a new console to keep up with MS and I doubt many of the Sony executives would be behind risking the rest of the Sony company for just the games division.
MS have a much more vested interest in becoming a monopolistic success in the games market having failed to become number one with the internet.
Additionally, I feel that one clear next gen mover would be appreciated by game developers as they would have an argument to focus on the one games machine future that they are always on about.
Of course, to minimise peaving of their current game base, MS would have to maintain the 360 in much the same way as the PS2 (entry level) for a while after the new release. Manufacturing standards would have to improve and blu-ray would most likely feature in the new console (probably, with the benefits of a finalised spec and hardware refinement, carrying a disk speed capable of running games without having to resort to installations.)
F***ing analysts. There's a reason their job title includes the word "anal". Any idiot could say this, but why would Nintendo rush to replace something that's likely to be sold out on its third Xmas in a row?
F***ing analysts. There's a reason their job title includes the word "anal". Any idiot could say this, but why would Nintendo rush to replace something that's likely to be sold out on its third Xmas in a row?
Possibly because it might not have been their next gen console? Maybe a revamped gamecube with some peripherals they had intended to release for the gamecube quickly rushed out in order to buy time to complete their real next-gen console. Who knows.
Still, having bought a Wii. I no longer use it. It just looks bad on my 37 HD TV ( annoyingly so) even though I run it 480p. Basklash is beginning to occur over the lack of decent hardcore titles and Nintendo's refusal to give details could indicate that the next hardcore titles are not planned for release on existing hardware.
i dont really care about nintendo anymore. there last 2 consoles have been flops in my opinion. the gamecube was just a total disaster which lacked quality games. And as for the wii i cant take it seriously. I mean the graphics are terrible and i just cant see myself playing games such as fifa09 if i have to wave some stupid sticks around. tbh i think the next console they bring out will be of the quality of the present generation consoles.
Personally I think Nintendo has a couple of difficult decision to make about the next console. The Wii is very popular now and the fact that it was massively cheaper than it's competitors at launch and had a new (and for most games, but not all gimmicky) control system. The fact that it wasn't HD didn't matter so much as it was a console for now (or rather then when it was launched) and the majority of people didn't have a HD television. If they just update the Wii to a HD version and bung on a Hard Drive they'll only bring the system to the level of the PS3 and 360 which are firmly entrenched in the HD market now. If they go beyond the spec of the PS3 and 360 to something that is genuinely next generation then they'll have the most expensive console on the market and really have to recruit the 3rd party developers to support the full capability of their machine. Given how Nintendo sprung the Motion plus on everyone including developers I doubt that 3rd party support will be easily persauded.
What a dumb analyst, the Wii is the most popular console right now and Nintendo have already stated that they aren't and don't want to be in competition with Sony and M$, the lack of DVD compatibility and HD graphics is what they wanted to keep the price down. Nintendo will most likely make a new and improved model of the Wii, in different colours, with big storage space and whatever else, like what Microsoft and Sony having been doing to their console 3 times over already. But I highly doubt Nintendo will be the first to release a brand new console. It's pretty obvious that not everyone is a graphics whore, so HD gaming is not what everyone wants. The Wii could last as long as the PS2 I reckon.
Nintendo were shocked by the demand for component cables at launch,and said at the time the next console would definately be hi-def.They were shocked again at the response they got for the E3 showing.....maybe they should hire a chuffin' analyst! If Nintendo were to bring out an all singing,all dancing new console first,the only thing that'ld garauntee would be much better third party titles.As first party Wii titles sell by the bucket load,well,what's the rush? Agree with YCshinobi in that the Wii could last as long as the PS2 ( for certain gamers,anyway ),and can see casual games being made for it for years to come.
F***ing analysts. There's a reason their job title includes the word "anal". Any idiot could say this, but why would Nintendo rush to replace something that's likely to be sold out on its third Xmas in a row?
Possibly because it might not have been their next gen console? Maybe a revamped gamecube with some peripherals they had intended to release for the gamecube quickly rushed out in order to buy time to complete their real next-gen console. Who knows.
Still, having bought a Wii. I no longer use it. It just looks bad on my 37 HD TV ( annoyingly so) even though I run it 480p. Basklash is beginning to occur over the lack of decent hardcore titles and Nintendo's refusal to give details could indicate that the next hardcore titles are not planned for release on existing hardware.
That's incredibly cynical, even by my standards. The "Revolution" had been in the works for a long time before it was finally released as the "Wii", and Nintendo only kept its power low to aid developers (also, the earlier games looked like GC games because Nintendo told devs to make Wii games using GC dev kits until the Wii kits were ready, so they'd have loads of games available at launch, not just three or four, like the N64/GC).
I have to admit, I would prefer the Wii to support HD (at least 576p or 720p, as 1080p requires a lot of power, and I wouldn't mind if the games had no extra detail -- just the higher res would be nice).
But you don't rush into the next gen when you're still making piles of cash (look at how late the PS3 joined the party. 360 came first because the original Xbox was dead and buried. Nintendo have the DS, so they don't need to rush, as they still have cash flowing in from that source).
i dont really care about nintendo anymore. there last 2 consoles have been flops in my opinion. the gamecube was just a total disaster which lacked quality games. And as for the wii i cant take it seriously. I mean the graphics are terrible and i just cant see myself playing games such as fifa09 if i have to wave some stupid sticks around. tbh i think the next console they bring out will be of the quality of the present generation consoles.
I quite enjoyed Pikmin, Metroid Prime, Super Smash Bros Melee, Luigi's Mansion, Super Monkey Ball, Zelda: Wind Waker, Super Mario Sunshine, Paper Mario 2, Animal Crossing, F-Zero GX, Viewtiful Joe, Metal Gear Twin Snakes, Ikaruga, Star Wars Rogue Leader, Soul Calibur II (with Link), Mega Man X Collection (best of the series), even DK Jungle Beat was something of a treat.
As for Wii, if the best Zelda in years doesn't float your boat then fair enough. Some games overdo the remote-flinging (Boom Blox makes my elbow hurt), but games like Super Mario Galaxy and Twilight Princess use it to good effect without making it gimmicky. And Sega finally realised they could make 3D Sonic work by using simpler Wii controls. Inspiration comes from the most unlikely sources.
I think Nintendo already has sparked the next gen war, we just don't know it yet, well at least MS is probably beavering away on a Wiimote like controller for its next console, which will probably be out within the next two years if Sony and Nintendo keep gaining ground on the 360 in terms of sales and if Sony over takes the 360 which will probably happen by the middle of next year, I doubt that Microsoft will be happy with being in third place so another console by Microsoft may just be around the corner!
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