Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has estimated that the first batch of 360 exclusive Grand Theft Auto IV DLC, The Lost and Damned, will have been downloaded two million times by the end of the year.
Microsoft's already said that The Lost and Damned broke Xbox Live's first day revenue record, although it hasn't confirmed how many times the content has been downloaded to date.
"Take-Two released the first instalment of DLC for GTA in mid-February, and we estimate that the game has been downloaded over one million times to date. By year-end, we think that this figure will likely double", said Pachter.
"The next instalment of DLC is due later this year, perhaps coming after the close of the company's October 31 fiscal year," he added.
Pachter also expects a new full GTA title to release next year, and predicted it would comfortably outsell GTA IV.
"When the next version of GTA comes out in late 2010 (not yet announced, but a reasonable expectation), there should be an installed base of approximately 60 million consoles in the addressable market. We don't think it is reasonable to estimate that sales of GTA will double the prior version, but we think that a 25-30% penetration is reasonable, suggesting 15-18 million units sold."
It's fit their release model for the last generation, although DLC opens up other options they previously didn't have (but the Xbox HDD space limits them somewhat still).
Really Michael Patcher? Did you have to become an analyst to predict that? Are you the same stupid analyst who keeps predicting PS3 pricecuts every 7 weeks?
"Ooh I'm Michael Patcher and I analyse stuff and I've analysed that there will be a new Grand Theft Auto next year because there's a clear pattern which anybody can see of when they release them and one is blatantly due next year. Which anybody could see. I'm an analyst."
If they follow the trend of smaller and dumber gameplay but with a better story, I expect the next gameworld to be the size of Basingstoke, but with an excellent story.
more friends to constantly call during missions, more drama, more moral choices, more pigeons to shoot, more boring driving from one mission to another and less money to spend on not possible to buy condos with chopper on the roof, less blood, less gangsta, less balls.
i seem to remember that GTA4 was being developed just before PS3 was released in europe, that gave them about 10ish months, a new one by 2010 could happen. or maybe it was the US release, which means they had a year and 4 months.
Well they've developed the engine now, they can churn out the next few "GTA" games faster... I dont really care where they set it next but please for the love of god disable auto aim in multiplayer!!
new gta by fall 2010 ??? wud dat nat be a bit soon,,?? as gta usually have a 3-4 year gap between them ,, hope its true,,thought the new engine ,, in gta4 was great ,, and hopefully with the next installement, they can concentrate more on ingame content and more things to do,,like san andreas,, and hopefully the game world will be bigger 2,,
Sounds promising if true. Now please drop the lame R* and Windows LIVE accounts requirement in order to run the game and save game progression on the PC. It's not clever, it's just stupid.
You better just state GTA5 there mate. I've a feeling you're going to see a few GTA games for the DS and probably another one for the PSP between now and then.
Doubt GTA5 will be next year t will be on the same engine as 4 but different city/loaction. A bit like GTA3 then the vice city & san andreas games that came within the following two years, hope fully a return ti vice city is next. I wish for a england location , with spin off old 80's english cars and gangs of punks, mods, towneees etc!!haha
If they follow the trend of smaller and dumber gameplay but with a better story, I expect the next gameworld to be the size of Basingstoke, but with an excellent story.
As to this:
"Pachter also expects a new full GTA title to release next year, and predicted it would comfortably outsell GTA IV.
"When the next version of GTA comes out in late 2010 (not yet announced, but a reasonable expectation), there should be an installed base of approximately 60 million consoles in the addressable market. We don't think it is reasonable to estimate that sales of GTA will double the prior version, but we think that a 25-30% penetration is reasonable, suggesting 15-18 million units sold.""
While 15-18 million units sold would comfortably outsell GTA IV, GTA San Andreas has actually sold 23 million units - it actually sold over a million units last year - 4 years after it was released!
So much for gamers wanting 'streamlined games' (ie smaller gameworlds and simpler gameplay!)!!!
How did GTA4 have dumb gameplay? Was it the new cover system? The new combat system? The new, more realistic car handling and physics?
If they follow the trend of smaller and dumber gameplay but with a better story, I expect the next gameworld to be the size of Basingstoke, but with an excellent story.
As to this:
"Pachter also expects a new full GTA title to release next year, and predicted it would comfortably outsell GTA IV.
"When the next version of GTA comes out in late 2010 (not yet announced, but a reasonable expectation), there should be an installed base of approximately 60 million consoles in the addressable market. We don't think it is reasonable to estimate that sales of GTA will double the prior version, but we think that a 25-30% penetration is reasonable, suggesting 15-18 million units sold.""
While 15-18 million units sold would comfortably outsell GTA IV, GTA San Andreas has actually sold 23 million units - it actually sold over a million units last year - 4 years after it was released!
So much for gamers wanting 'streamlined games' (ie smaller gameworlds and simpler gameplay!)!!!
How did GTA4 have dumb gameplay? Was it the new cover system? The new combat system? The new, more realistic car handling and physics?
GTA4 was much better than San Andreas, I much preferred the realistic feel to the story rather than the cartoony stylings of the previous effort.
I can see another being released next year though, the game engine is solid enough so they wouldn't have to write another of those... and the gap between 3 and Vice City wasn't that big.
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I hope this is true but chances are the guy is just guessing. I remember an analyst saying the PS3 would win the console war.
Rockstar should be able to make a new GTA much quicker now that they have an engine and some gameplay. I would love it if they made a next gen san andreas. I liked GTA 4 dont get me wrong but it needs alot of changes.
It needs to cut the realism and stop taking itself so seriously a crime simulator shouldn't take itself seriously. They need to set it in the past again and get some better music on the radios. They need some vast countryside (for some better police chases and a bit of variety) and while they are at it they should sort out the car handling, for a game like Gran Turismo realistic handling is great but when you are after a long police chase that makes you feel like a brilliant get away driver then it needs to be easier than reality. I'd like to see the planes and the parachuting brought back and I wouldn't mind the Jet Pack, Golf Buggies, Combine Harvesters etc. I'd also prefer a different system for losing the police, I prefered the old 6 stars.
San Andreas was far Superior to GTA 4, you dont play Gta for the gritty realism or car handling, you play it for the fun and comic affect. Which San andreas caught perfectly.
Idoubt there will be another GTA by the end of next year. A couple more episodes of Dlc is a lot more likely. Why bother Building a new city from scratch when they've already shown how much fun and life there is in the one they've already created.
IF the Dlc stays as good as L&D than i'd be happy not to see a new GTA till next gen.
San Andreas was far Superior to GTA 4, you dont play Gta for the gritty realism or car handling, you play it for the fun and comic affect. Which San andreas caught perfectly.
I preferred the gritty realism of GTA 4. San Andreas was great, but there were so many OTT moments that spoilt the game for me as they didn't fit the story.
But the landscape of San Andreas was more interesting to explore though.
Idoubt there will be another GTA by the end of next year. A couple more episodes of Dlc is a lot more likely. Why bother Building a new city from scratch when they've already shown how much fun and life there is in the one they've already created.
IF the Dlc stays as good as L&D than i'd be happy not to see a new GTA till next gen.
I believe they have to leave LC after the next DLC. Still a great city, but I think three stories there is enough for this generation. They have to keep things fresh and exciting, one of the great things about GTA is that feeling when you finally take control of your character and start to explore.
Really Michael Patcher? Did you have to become an analyst to predict that? Are you the same stupid analyst who keeps predicting PS3 pricecuts every 7 weeks?
"Ooh I'm Michael Patcher and I analyse stuff and I've analysed that there will be a new Grand Theft Auto next year because there's a clear pattern which anybody can see of when they release them and one is blatantly due next year. Which anybody could see. I'm an analyst."
I know its as if the games industry is run by analysts these days, not developers.
Heres the next GTA I'm looking forward to: Yakuza 3 - GTA Tokyo if there ever is one. All I can say is: Bring it to the West NOW Sega!
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its as if the games industry is run by analysts these days, not developers.
