Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter expects Xbox 360's home console market share to fade to third by 2015, largely due to a lack of penetration in Japan.
"We expect the dominant console at the end of the this cycle to be the Wii, as we think that the console's low price point, innovative control mechanism, and compatibility with standard definition televisions will provide it with a competitive advantage over the next two years," he said, noting that he still expects the company to introduce a high definition Wii.
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"We think that the PS3 will capture significant market share, primarily due to Sony's victory in the high definition DVD format war, and will end up in second place by 2015," he added. "Although Microsoft's Xbox 360 enjoyed a first mover advantage, we think that its market position will fade to third place due to lack of penetration in Japan."
By the end of 2009 he expects Wii to have captured a 49 per cent share of the US and European markets, followed by the Xbox 360 at 29 per cent and the PS3 at 22 per cent.
Two years he sees Wii market share having slipped marginally to 48 per cent, while PS3 and Xbox 360 each hold a 26 per cent share.
all that matters for me is whats in my house and gets played...i have all 3 machines,the 360 is the only console i constantly play...PS3 gets switched on once or twice a fortnight perhaps,Wii 6 months ago
Gotta love these analysts but by 2015 i'd put money on the xbox 360 being a distant memory. Dropped just like the original xbox for a 'natal equipped 720'.
God, really who gives a s**t?? CVG post article after article of this flamebait crap. Pick the console that you're happiest with and dont worry about "who's selling how many of what" FFS!!!
Yeah, I can see that, but expect xbox 720 by 2012 anyway. Also, as the Xbox still holds a large enough market share to be profitable to both Mircosoft and the software developers, so ultimately doesn't matter. The PS3 will have loads of great exclusives, as will the 360. The wii will just be played by my mum and girlfriend.
this is mog lays! all of it! it is not the troth! make may mad angery! ffs, may xplain to this noob that teh order go 1) xbox360 .greet and speciel made of /win 2)wii . a bit crap, but good good for mom 3) ps-crap. worser than n64 IMGO /fail lesseon over. uv been serveed. plez troth only.
this is mog lays! all of it! it is not the troth! make may mad angery! ffs, may xplain to this noob that teh order go 1) xbox360 .greet and speciel made of /win 2)wii . a bit crap, but good good for mom 3) ps-crap. worser than n64 IMGO /fail lesseon over. uv been serveed. plez troth only.
God, really who gives a s**t?? CVG post article after article of this flamebait crap. Pick the console that you're happiest with and dont worry about "who's selling how many of what" FFS!!!
I can see this console cycle going on longer than the previous one did. Since its become more about control and less about the actual grunt of the console itself.
There's no chance in hell that the the other two will even get close to the wii in terms of sales i also highly doubt that the PS3 will ever overtake the 360. Its dominance in the larger of the 3 markets (US,EU) has cemented that for the forseeable future.
As for the wii not having any decent exclusives. Have you been living under a rock. my wiis been seeing more playtime than the other two combined this year. last year granted it was an attractive paper wieght for the best part of the year. but since wiiwares gotten its act together and it looks like devs are starting to take it seriously it's been a great year for the wii. and i can see this continuing next year.
i used to think that my main console would be 360, until i actually got my ps3. now i buy non exclusive games for ps3 instead of 360. i like practically everything on it more, the pad, the dashboard, the look of the machine etc...
Anyone without rose-tinted glasses could have told you the order will probably be Wii, PS3, 360. Don't need an analyst for that.
360 will stop production before 2015 at least in the form it is now (denying it 2nd place) and a new console will release with a new name hopefully... Wii will probably stop before then too, maybe with a newer HD version taking it's place "WiiHD" (sounds bit like weeed - not the best name) PS3 will continue to run into 2015, with a new sibling released before then to match Microsoft's new entry probably the PS4, and will continue steady sales There probably will be an Apple entry by then too, as well as that OnLive rubbish.
Anyway placement isn't everything. It's the money you make that matters.
By 2016 the xbox 360 will have been replaced by the 720, and the two reasons he gives for both 360 and ps3 being behind wii is normal tv and motion control.....err dosnt both consoles work on normal tv's? and wont they both have motion control soon enough?
By 2016 the xbox 360 will have been replaced by the 720, and the two reasons he gives for both 360 and ps3 being behind wii is normal tv and motion control.....err dosnt both consoles work on normal tv's? and wont they both have motion control soon enough?
2015? Jesus, will anyone care by then? I mean, We'll pretty much have had all the games we're going to get by then, so what differnece does it make to us?
What is that, like the 8th/9th year into the consoles lifetime? The PS2 is around there now and as we all know, everyone is still going mental at the fact it's beating the Gamecube and Xbox.
Yes I'm not at all surprised by this statement Its been obvious for a long time now the 360 days are numbered (Since Blue Ray won the war) The 360 was good to get the next generation going but sadly the big noisy machine will be sooning breathing its last breath.
Yes I'm not at all surprised by this statement Its been obvious for a long time now the 360 days are numbered (Since Blue Ray won the war) The 360 was good to get the next generation going but sadly the big noisy machine will be sooning breathing its last breath.
Yes I'm not at all surprised by this statement Its been obvious for a long time now the 360 days are numbered (Since Blue Ray won the war) The 360 was good to get the next generation going but sadly the big noisy machine will be sooning breathing its last breath.
Yes I'm not at all surprised by this statement Its been obvious for a long time now the 360 days are numbered (Since Blue Ray won the war) The 360 was good to get the next generation going but sadly the big noisy machine will be sooning breathing its last breath.
He says it is due to Japan, but I thought Britain was now the 2nd largest consumer of computer games after the US now, and I believe our main console is the 360? (yes, after the wii obviously)
may aggrree broother. ps-crap needs MAJOR price cut down. is tyrantt sony cut teh prise to Ł5, may by some... shhh 2 throguh in the c hahah ps-crap ps-crap /ownd
This site is faster than it was six months ago, but every day about 5pm it just throws a fit and doesn't work. Hence the ridiculous number of double or triple posts.
I think somebody in the CVG office must be switching the internet when they switch their pc off at home time.
So despite the fact that the wii's sales have plummeted over the last year and the 360 is much cheaper they still believe the 360 will be last and the wii first :S
This site is faster than it was six months ago, but every day about 5pm it just throws a fit and doesn't work. Hence the ridiculous number of double or triple posts.
I think somebody in the CVG office must be switching the internet when they switch their pc off at home time.
well... we don't know what it is.. no-one does... but best guess... a white hole.
Why do we even care? The market is healthy enough to support three consoles so what difference do sales make to the gamers? Post this on a business site, not a gaming site, CVG.
Now, enough flame wars, lets all talk about something else, oooh I know! What's your favorite sword from any game? Mine is Sephiroth's Masamune from FF7.
i say BS to patcher. The 360 is outselling the ps3 in the U.S by an even greater margin than last year so how the hell is the ps3 going to catch up? not unless the 360 gets replaced. if you don't care about the sony exclusives or bluray there's no point in getting a ps3 over a 360.
whoever posted they switched from 360 to ps3 and prefer the ps3 pad i say you must be smoking crack or something.
Microsoft will blatantly have released another console by 2015. Just cause Sony are going on and on and on and on and on and on and on about ten year life cycles, doesn't mean that's what Microsoft and Nintendo are planning. In fact, Ubisoft (I think, one of the top three publishers anyway) said they're expecting a new Microsoft console in the next two to three years. So in fact, the 360 will probably be fourth or fifth or sixth place in 2015.
Having said that, if Micrsoft market Natal in the way that Nintendo have marketed the Wii then it wouldn't be surprising to see them take first place with the 360 or 360 with Natal in the next few years.
On topic really by 2015 thats like 5 & half years by then there will be another gen upon us or with us in full swing either that or we will be downloading all our games or streaming them & playing them through a little set top box like the On-live.
And as far as I can see there is no reason why the current gen machines could not double up as a set top receiver for such applications anyway, I mean MS are already testing the waters in this area with full 1080P hd streaming films, if they can do this with movies why not games?
This site is faster than it was six months ago, but every day about 5pm it just throws a fit and doesn't work. Hence the ridiculous number of double or triple posts.
I think somebody in the CVG office must be switching the internet when they switch their pc off at home time.
Well, like someone said, CVG get money for loads of post so they're probably doing it on purpose
2015? Dont make me laugh, The PS3 is now on a 21.8% market share compaired to the 360 which has a 29.4% market share (wii has 48.8%). I think by the end of 2010 the 360 will be in 3rd place.
Just incase you thought I picked these numbers out of the air, try www.vgchartz.com you can keep a good track on sales across all formats.
The 360's biggest problem is MS's inability to understand how to update their tech. If they could release a sexy little 360 in the next six months they would walk all over Sony, but we'll still be looking at their beige box for another three years at least.
The 360 and ps3 won't be very competitive by 2015.
I'll be amazed if there's not another xbox by then, i wouldn't rule out a ps4 by then either.
After testing overlord 2 on 360 and pc recently, it was painful to see the 360 struggling(framerate wise)to keep up with my pc. The pc ran it at 1920x1080 with no slowdown ever, the 360 runs it at a lower res and it stutters like a champion. The 360 is already looking like what it is now(a 4 year old pc). The ps3 is no better.
A decent pc hammers both consoles already, by 2015 it'll be out of sight power wise.
The 360 and ps3 won't be very competitive by 2015.
I'll be amazed if there's not another xbox by then, i wouldn't rule out a ps4 by then either.
After testing overlord 2 on 360 and pc recently, it was painful to see the 360 struggling(framerate wise)to keep up with my pc. The pc ran it at 1920x1080 with no slowdown ever, the 360 runs it at a lower res and it stutters like a champion. The 360 is already looking like what it is now(a 4 year old pc). The ps3 is no better.
A decent pc hammers both consoles already, by 2015 it'll be out of sight power wise.
Yeah, but can you buy a Ł130 Pc that can run it at all?
The 360 and ps3 won't be very competitive by 2015.
I'll be amazed if there's not another xbox by then, i wouldn't rule out a ps4 by then either.
After testing overlord 2 on 360 and pc recently, it was painful to see the 360 struggling(framerate wise)to keep up with my pc. The pc ran it at 1920x1080 with no slowdown ever, the 360 runs it at a lower res and it stutters like a champion. The 360 is already looking like what it is now(a 4 year old pc). The ps3 is no better.
A decent pc hammers both consoles already, by 2015 it'll be out of sight power wise.
Yeah, but can you buy a Ł130 Pc that can run it at all?
He does make a good point though. I imagine a lot of us have moved to PC gaming at the end of a console generations lifetime. It will certainly get to a point in the next couple of years where you'll need to play the PC version to get the full experience.
The 360 and ps3 won't be very competitive by 2015.
I'll be amazed if there's not another xbox by then, i wouldn't rule out a ps4 by then either.
After testing overlord 2 on 360 and pc recently, it was painful to see the 360 struggling(framerate wise)to keep up with my pc. The pc ran it at 1920x1080 with no slowdown ever, the 360 runs it at a lower res and it stutters like a champion. The 360 is already looking like what it is now(a 4 year old pc). The ps3 is no better.
A decent pc hammers both consoles already, by 2015 it'll be out of sight power wise.
Yeah, but can you buy a Ł130 Pc that can run it at all?
He does make a good point though. I imagine a lot of us have moved to PC gaming at the end of a console generations lifetime. It will certainly get to a point in the next couple of years where you'll need to play the PC version to get the full experience.
Time to start saving.
I was going to say I don't agree, but if you already have a decent PC, you can pick up graphics cards that easily outstrip a 360/Ps3 for about Ł120. In fact I was playing San Andreas on my old P4 and Doom 3, Half Life 2.
I always thought the PS3 would outsell the 360 by the time their successors arrive. Not sure it'll happen by 2010 though as market share has stayed at roughly 22%, 30% and 48% for the last year, with the wii actually pulling away slightly. To maintain a higher market share, you have to sell more than companies with lower market share, so Sony have got to first match the global weekly/monthly sales of the 360 and then over take it. Think that might take a bit longer than 18 months, especially considering the USA's preference of the the 360.
I've come to three conclusions:
1) It's going to be interesting to see what happens when the prices are more evenly matched.
2) It looks like there is space for three main home consoles in the market. Even if two of them are closer in spec than probably ever before. I suppose that's because one of them approaches things totally differently.
3) This year I predict the 2009 Vauxhall Astra to outsell the 1981 Ford Capri.
The 360's biggest problem is MS's inability to understand how to update their tech. If they could release a sexy little 360 in the next six months they would walk all over Sony, but we'll still be looking at their beige box for another three years at least.
Very true. I could see them going down this route as opposed to further price cuts but if they haven't talked it up by now I can't see it happening.
A couple of points, Japan are trying to be more western with their games so 360 could phase into normality there. 360 has the cheapest systems and with Natal may become even more appealing to the casual audience so could gain ground in this way. Last I assume this is hardware only because I know the 360 will still make the most out of software and the PS3 doesn't actually sell units for games its more for Bluray movies (even if the games are top choices from E3 they're rental length games) I'm going to make a better guess and say in 6 years Japan will be more of a standard audience in with America and EU in tastes and 360 will slightly penetrate the casual audience and Wii will slow sales to bring the gap between the two closer and PS3 in games sales will be distant third as the console will sell as a cheap/powerfull Bluray player but as a confused and unsociable console won't have enough appeal. I'll be back in 6 years to gloat that I made a better estimate of gaming future than this guy lol.
The 360 and ps3 won't be very competitive by 2015.
I'll be amazed if there's not another xbox by then, i wouldn't rule out a ps4 by then either.
After testing overlord 2 on 360 and pc recently, it was painful to see the 360 struggling(framerate wise)to keep up with my pc. The pc ran it at 1920x1080 with no slowdown ever, the 360 runs it at a lower res and it stutters like a champion. The 360 is already looking like what it is now(a 4 year old pc). The ps3 is no better.
A decent pc hammers both consoles already, by 2015 it'll be out of sight power wise.
Yeah, but can you buy a Ł130 Pc that can run it at all?
He does make a good point though. I imagine a lot of us have moved to PC gaming at the end of a console generations lifetime. It will certainly get to a point in the next couple of years where you'll need to play the PC version to get the full experience.
Time to start saving.
That's if there are any games developers still supporting the PC, and not just porting the odd console game over to it(the PC is now pretty much the worst selling platform out there).
This site is faster than it was six months ago, but every day about 5pm it just throws a fit and doesn't work. Hence the ridiculous number of double or triple posts.
I think somebody in the CVG office must be switching the internet when they switch their pc off at home time.
The 360 and ps3 won't be very competitive by 2015.
I'll be amazed if there's not another xbox by then, i wouldn't rule out a ps4 by then either.
After testing overlord 2 on 360 and pc recently, it was painful to see the 360 struggling(framerate wise)to keep up with my pc. The pc ran it at 1920x1080 with no slowdown ever, the 360 runs it at a lower res and it stutters like a champion. The 360 is already looking like what it is now(a 4 year old pc). The ps3 is no better.
A decent pc hammers both consoles already, by 2015 it'll be out of sight power wise.
Yeah, but can you buy a Ł130 Pc that can run it at all?
He does make a good point though. I imagine a lot of us have moved to PC gaming at the end of a console generations lifetime. It will certainly get to a point in the next couple of years where you'll need to play the PC version to get the full experience.
Time to start saving.
That's if there are any games developers still supporting the PC, and not just porting the odd console game over to it(the PC is now pretty much the worst selling platform out there).
I am sure the PC games market will be fine by then. There is still a hell of a lot going for it. There is still plenty of room for PC gaming and PC's are still going to be available for a long time for people to carry on developing on. unlike the consoles, where they are obsolete over time. Apart from good old retrogaming that is
The 360 and ps3 won't be very competitive by 2015.
I'll be amazed if there's not another xbox by then, i wouldn't rule out a ps4 by then either.
After testing overlord 2 on 360 and pc recently, it was painful to see the 360 struggling(framerate wise)to keep up with my pc. The pc ran it at 1920x1080 with no slowdown ever, the 360 runs it at a lower res and it stutters like a champion. The 360 is already looking like what it is now(a 4 year old pc). The ps3 is no better.
A decent pc hammers both consoles already, by 2015 it'll be out of sight power wise.
Pretty much, and your observation reinforces Ted's comment above. The current consoles might be able to stick around if there was a cheap, easey and reliable way to upgrade their hardware while not leaving existing customers out in the cold. However, if a workable solution was found it would probably result in the consoles imitating a fully fledged PC even more than at present.
The more PC-like a console becomes the more it seems the companies making them will have to consider how much of a loss per unit they are willing to sustain by entering what will essentially be a PC market if they want to keep their prices lower than existing PCs. That or they will have to specifically limit the functions of the PC-consoles at a time where many customers are accustomed to having choice and an increase in features - that may not be a winning strategy. Perhaps focusing on the "ease of use" factor would be the way to go since many people are somehwat intimidated by the innards of a PC due to a lack of knowledge about them, but that still leaves the console companies competing with existing PC makers and brings us back to the current issue of how to upgrade that system later on. In other words: back to square one.
The 360 and PS3 work fine on standard def TVs. Don't make me laugh. Try playing Dead rising or the multitude of other games in which the text becomes practically unreadable then tell me they work perfectly well on SD Tvs. the fact that HD tvs have plummeted in price recently make it a bit of a moot point. but still.
The 360 and ps3 won't be very competitive by 2015.
I'll be amazed if there's not another xbox by then, i wouldn't rule out a ps4 by then either.
After testing overlord 2 on 360 and pc recently, it was painful to see the 360 struggling(framerate wise)to keep up with my pc. The pc ran it at 1920x1080 with no slowdown ever, the 360 runs it at a lower res and it stutters like a champion. The 360 is already looking like what it is now(a 4 year old pc). The ps3 is no better.
A decent pc hammers both consoles already, by 2015 it'll be out of sight power wise.
Yeah, but can you buy a Ł130 Pc that can run it at all?
He does make a good point though. I imagine a lot of us have moved to PC gaming at the end of a console generations lifetime. It will certainly get to a point in the next couple of years where you'll need to play the PC version to get the full experience.
Time to start saving.
That's if there are any games developers still supporting the PC, and not just porting the odd console game over to it(the PC is now pretty much the worst selling platform out there).
Not quite. Forgot the MMOs? That market segment alone utterly destroys any other market segment in terms of sales and it provides a near constant revenue. I don't go for subscription based MMOs personally, but that doesn't blind me to the success of some of them and why they can be an attractive option for some publishers/developers.
It does seem that there are less AAA PC titles being released but they are still being released, though in many cases on multiple platforms which is fine really.
Analysts, you gotta love em..they do what they are paid to do..analyse the figures as they stand today. Of course it's rubbish..i reckon that the Dreamcast will have a great resurgence due to finally the english version of seaman 2 being released and everybody plays power stone all day.
The 360 and ps3 won't be very competitive by 2015.
I'll be amazed if there's not another xbox by then, i wouldn't rule out a ps4 by then either.
After testing overlord 2 on 360 and pc recently, it was painful to see the 360 struggling(framerate wise)to keep up with my pc. The pc ran it at 1920x1080 with no slowdown ever, the 360 runs it at a lower res and it stutters like a champion. The 360 is already looking like what it is now(a 4 year old pc). The ps3 is no better.
A decent pc hammers both consoles already, by 2015 it'll be out of sight power wise.
Yeah, but can you buy a Ł130 Pc that can run it at all?
He does make a good point though. I imagine a lot of us have moved to PC gaming at the end of a console generations lifetime. It will certainly get to a point in the next couple of years where you'll need to play the PC version to get the full experience.
Time to start saving.
That's if there are any games developers still supporting the PC, and not just porting the odd console game over to it(the PC is now pretty much the worst selling platform out there).
Not quite. Forgot the MMOs? That market segment alone utterly destroys any other market segment in terms of sales and it provides a near constant revenue. I don't go for subscription based MMOs personally, but that doesn't blind me to the success of some of them and why they can be an attractive option for some publishers/developers.
It does seem that there are less AAA PC titles being released but they are still being released, though in many cases on multiple platforms which is fine really.
MMOs are kind of the exception, along with ad supported flash games and micro transaction supported games like Battlefield Heroes, which all generate revenue in ways other than the traditional method. But as for AAA titles? just look at the way publishers are now leading with the console versions, with the PC version following behind(I'm begining to think they only do that now to distance it from the others). Also, how many AAA PC exclusives are coming in the future that aren't supported by ads, subs or micro transactions?
I know this is probably a faux pas, but the xboxidiot should know that an Xbox is essentially a PC dressed up as a console...therefore slagging off a pc is rather redundant.
I know this is probably a faux pas, but the xboxidiot should know that an Xbox is essentially a PC dressed up as a console...therefore slagging off a pc is rather redundant.
I seriously doubt such a prediction. The console will definately fade in 6 years time- new consoles will be out by then, but I don't think that the XBOX 360 will ever fall behind the PS3. Just because Microsoft can't infiltrate Nintendoland (aka Japan...) doesn't mean it'll be bad; Sony did a good job of appealing to the west with the PS2, and the only reason why the Gamecube was still heard of years on was because Japan has an obessession with Nintendo. It's definately not a console appealing to everybody like the Wii, but it certainly offers a few things more for the money than the PS3.
The new Xbox will probably be out within 3 or 4 years, so this statement is void. I wouldn't be surprised to see Microsoft choose to have Blu Ray, because their other attempts with the HD-DVD didn't exactly go to plan. I do believe that the PS3 will begin rapidly catching up on Microsoft, but it needs price cuts firstly, be able to run every PS1 and PS2 game, and lots more AAA titles like Uncharted and GOW, to stand a chance.
What a load of bo***cks! Anyone can say who the market leader will be in x amount of years by analysing what's happened since the beginning of this new generation. I think the Wii's user base will actually dip as owners get fed up with the cheap party games and gamecube re-releases. The PS3 will do well but the 360 could be just pip it as it has the superior game catalogue.
*There you go, i'm another idiot who has predicted the future with my masterful analysing.....now, where do i pick up my cheque? *
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this is mog lays! all of it! it is not the troth! make may mad angery! ffs, may xplain to this noob that teh order go
!
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